True surprises are rare in the NFL MVP race. It’s an award dominated by quarterbacks and typically the biggest names at the position.The last time a non-quarterback won NFL MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012, despite pushes by Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey in recent years.When Matthew Stafford won last season, he had the longest preseason odds for an eventual winner since Lamar Jackson’s first MVP award in 2019. Stafford was 35-to-1 to win MVP by the start of last season. Jackson was 40-to-1 when he won.Before Stafford, the previous four winners — Josh Allen in 2024, Jackson in 2023, Patrick Mahomes in 2022 and Aaron Rodgers in 2021 — were among the top six in the preseason odds. Still, it’s not often the preseason favorite actually wins the award. Tom Brady was the last to do it in 2017. Allen, Mahomes and Rodgers were second in the preseason odds when they won.That’s the history Allen faces as the current MVP favorite heading into this season. The Buffalo Bills quarterback is favored on both FanDuel (+550) and DraftKings (+600). This isn’t unfamiliar territory for Allen, who was the preseason favorite in 2022 and has been among the top four MVP favorites at the start of every season since 2021.