Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has ordered his forces to capture the entire Donbas by the end of 2026, but his "battlefield fiction" remains divorced from the reality of Ukraine's defensive capabilities. At the current pace of advance, Russian forces would not be able to capture the remaining part of the Donetsk region until the fall of 2032.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this in a new assessment, according to Ukrinform.
According to the report, Putin has set no fewer than 15 reported deadlines for the seizure of the Donetsk region since February 2022, and Russian forces have failed to meet every one. Russian forces will not meet Putin's new deadline of seizing all of the Donetsk region by December 31, 2026. Russian forces have been fighting for Kostiantynivka since October 2025 and have not seized it in 11 months. Russian forces have not reached, much less entered or seized, the other Fortress Belt cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka, and will not be able to seize all three within the remaining four months of 2026, considering that they have failed to complete the seizure of even one in nearly a year.
"Putin's many deadlines to seize all of Donbas reflect in part his need to provide a significant informational victory to the Russian people. Putin has promised Russians victory in exchange for enduring the burdens of war without bringing Russian society to a full wartime footing," the report said.
