Post has also revised India’s soybean imports to five lakh tonnes, supported by favourable harvests among the African suppliers.
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USDA Post has cut the forecast for Indian soyabean output by 8 per cent to 9.6 million tonnes for the 2026-27 season from its earlier estimate of 10.4 million tonnes, citing erratic monsoon rainfall and reduced area impacting the output. This comes amid a section of farmers shifting to other crops such as cotton and corn. Post has also revised India’s soybean imports to five lakh tonnes, supported by favourable harvests among the African suppliers.FAS New Delhi has now estimated the soyabean cropped area at 10.5 million hectares, down 6 per cent from the earlier forecast of 11.2 million hectares. “Irregular rainfall during the planting window disrupted sowing operations and required replanting in parts of Maharashtra, a leading soybean-producing state. Compounding this, farmers increasingly diverted acreage to cotton, drawn by stronger market prices, and to corn, motivated by improved income prospects,” it said in a latest report.The initial reduction in kharif 2026 soybean plantings stemmed largely from a delayed, El Nino-influenced monsoon onset. However, subsequent rainfall in July supported a partial recovery in planted area across Maharashtra. Amid this uncertainty, some growers considered shifting to cotton, corn, or higher-value vegetable crops, while others experienced setbacks in land preparation due to unpredictable early-season weather. In contrast, Madhya Pradesh benefited from favourable rainfall throughout the season.Impact of better varietiesThe Post observed that the adoption of high-yielding, disease-resistant varieties is expected to partially offset the effects of reduced planted areas. However, field visits revealed that many farmers continue to rely on older cultivars such as JS 9560, which underperform relative to newer, improved varieties, it said.Soybean crush is forecast at 8.7 million tonnes, a 6 per cent dip from the earlier forecast of 9.3 million tonnes, reflecting the anticipated drop in both production and yield. Despite the contraction in crush volumes, food-use consumption is forecast to grow by 4 per cent above the annual estimate of 820,000 tonnes, as rising demand for plant-based products such as tofu, soymilk, and soy flour continues to boost food-grade soybean use.Simultaneously, feed use demand is expected to rise by 25 per cent over the annual forecast of 900,000 tonnes. This increase reflects a shift among poultry producers toward greater soybean meal usage, even amid higher prices, as corn supplies are increasingly diverted to ethanol production. Nonetheless, this projected feed-use level remains 18 per cent below feed-use consumption recorded in MY 2025/26.Soyameal production for 2026-27 is estimated to be lower at 7 million tonnes, a 6 per cent decline from the initial forecast. This decline corresponds directly with the 6 per cent decrease in crush volume noted in the oilseed section, as lower soybean oilseed production this year is expected to translate into reduced meal output.Lower meal exportsSoybean meal consumption forecasts and estimates for 2026-27 and 2025-26 remain steady. While feed consumption has declined over the past two years amid growing availability of alternatives like distillers dried grains (DDGs) and DORB (deoiled rice bran), persistent aflatoxin concerns keep soybean meal as the preferred protein source despite higher prices. Subdued crush volumes, however, continue to cap overall consumptionThe estimates for soybean meal exports were revised downward by 29 per cent from the initial forecast. Exports are expected to fall to a four-year low, driven primarily by a sharp rise in domestic prices and a tight domestic supply situation. Buyers rapidly pivoted to lower-cost South American suppliers, particularly Brazil and Argentina, to safeguard their margins.Soybean exports are expected to hold steady at 25,000 tonnes, while imports are forecast at five lakh tonnes, an increase of more than 100 per cent from the earlier annual forecast of 2 lakh tonnes. This is contingent on a favourable harvest in key African supplier nations, particularly Benin, Niger, and Togo. These countries serve as India’s primary source of non-GMO soybeans under least developed country (LDC) trade provisions, which grant duty-free access. However, looking ahead, the expanding processing capacity within African supplier nations is expected to reduce the volume of soybeans available for export to India in 2026-27.Published on September 7, 2026
