German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s party on Monday ruled out working with Alternative for Germany (AfD), a day after suffering a defeat in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.The far-right AfD won 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt’s state election on Sunday, according to exit polls. Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) secured 17.2% of the vote. Despite its commanding victory, the AfD fell three seats short of a majority in the state legislature. AfD had been aiming for an absolute majority to govern alone and overcome the "firewall" of the mainstream political establishment's refusal to work with the party.The result has presented a new test for the so-called firewall, underscoring the falling popularity of Merz and AfD’s growing national strength.“This election has further weakened the unpopular Merz. He was unable to fulfill his promise to significantly weaken the AfD,” Benjamin Höhne, a professor of comparative European governance systems at Chemnitz University of Technology, tells TIME. “The CDU in Saxony-Anhalt had already distanced itself from Merz during the campaign. This [result] is particularly dramatic given that, for many, Merz was seen as a beacon of hope as Merkel’s successor.”Merz referred to the result as "the hardest defeat that the CDU has had for decades," at a press conference in Berlin.The Chancellor tried to ease concerns over the stability of democratic institutions in Germany, as the AfD’s victory puts them a step closer to governing at the regional level, something no far-right party in the country has achieved since World War II.“I can reassure you: our institutions are stable, and our basic law protects this order, and the federal government, led by me, will make sure that the basic law is going to be enforced,” Merz continued. “This message also goes out to our friends in Europe, as we know that Germany has a special responsibility because of its history.”The AfD's national co-leader Tino Chrupalla has appealed to CDU lawmakers to make a "center-right conservative majority" in Saxony-Anhalt a reality, telling a German radio station that “partisan games really ought to be a thing of the past.”Despite the AfD's uncertain path, the surge in support for the far-right party—which ran on a platform of restricting immigration, ending aid to Ukraine, and floated the possibility of taking Germany out of the E.U.—is remarkable in a country where the legacy of Nazism has long kept the far right at the political margins. The party’s Saxony-Anhalt branch is classified by the state’s domestic intelligence as “right-wing extremist,” a designation that its leaders reject.“We have made history in this country,” said Ulrich Siegmund, AfD’s lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, after polls closed. “We’re taking our country back, it starts in Saxony-Anhalt. A jolt is going through all of Germany.”According to an analysis by Infratest Dimap, the AfD vote swept across almost all age groups, except in the over-70 category, which saw 32% vote for AfD and 31% vote for CDU. The result was more divided across gender lines, with 50% of men backing the AfD, while only 39% of women voted for the far-right partyThe state election result has drawn reactions from across the globe.U.S. President Donald Trump posted a screenshot of the projected results without comment on Truth Social. Members of Trump’s Administration, including Vice President J.D. Vance, have previously expressed public support for the party.Kirill Dmitriev, an envoy for Russian President Vladimir Putin who handles informal negotiations with the White House, argued that “AfD will restore Germany and Europe by leading the common-sense approach that migrant-friendly, warmongering Biden-think E.U. politicians tried to eradicate.” Europeans split over far-right AfD's victory as experts mull impactThe victory of the far-right AfD party has divided European officials.Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez framed the result in Saxony-Anhalt as a “warning that the far-right threat, thanks largely to the surrender of the traditional right, is gaining ground in Europe and around the world."French Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Valérie Hayer said AfD’s win “should serve as a wake-up call” for Europe.“Europeans are turning more and more each day toward populist forces based on clearly identified issues,” she said. “Faced with the radicalism of the extremes, I am deeply convinced that we must counter with another kind of radicalism—one that is pro-European.”France’s Europe minister Benjamin Haddad said the win was a “grave moment in Europe,” while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk insisted “in Poland, only idiots or traitors can rejoice at the triumph of the AfD in Germany.”Others across Europe welcomed waking up to the news from Germany.Former Hungarian Prime Minister and Trump-ally Viktor Orbán said the result was a “huge night for Germany and Europe" and told everyone to “buckle up, this is just the beginning.”Remarking on the impact for Europe, experts tell TIME that success in regional elections is often just the first step.“There has been an increasing trend for the far right to do well. They start doing really well in the local elections, and then, slowly, they become more embedded, more legitimate,” Daphne Halikiopoulou, chair of comparative politics at the University of York, tells TIME.Halikiopoulou points to other upcoming elections in other European countries like France, where far-right candidates currently show a lead ahead of the 2027 presidential contest, as ones to watch.What to know about Siegmund and the AfDThe AfD’s platform in Saxony-Anhalt ranges from tighter immigration controls to a sweeping overhaul of the state’s education system. Among its more controversial proposals is a policy of “remigration,” which is widely interpreted as mass deportation, although the party says it will prioritize deporting people with a criminal record. It has also called for segregating children of refugees and asylum-seekers in schools, and ending war refugee status for Ukrainians fleeing the war with Russia.The party would largely be unable to enact many of its immigration policies in any individual state even if it can form a government, since many of its proposals would require federal action. But it could tighten policing and pursue changes to schools and cultural policy at the state level.The party wants to steer schools and cultural institutions towards more traditional and nationalist values. It has also advocated revising history curricula to shift emphasis away from the Third Reich and for schools to ban rainbow flags. Instead, it wants schools to fly the German national flag daily, sing the national anthem at school celebrations, and teach more Russian language.The AfD has also attacked Bauhaus, calling the influential school and design movement an “aberration of modernism.” Critics, including Germany’s Culture Minister, have said the AfD’s rhetoric echoes that of the Nazis, who forced the Bauhaus school to close in 1933.The AfD capitalized on disillusionment with the political establishment and drew on regional and national pride, including “Ostalgie” or nostalgia for aspects of life in the former communist East Germany. That message found fertile ground in eastern strongholds, like Saxony-Anhalt, where economic disparities with western Germany persist decades after reunification. During the campaign, Siegmund frequently rode a blue Simson, a moped manufactured in the former East Germany, a move that drew criticism from the descendants of the Jewish family that founded Simson.The Halle Institute for Economic Research in Germany has warned that the AfD’s anti-immigration policies could deepen Saxony-Anhalt’s labor shortage and cost the state billions in economic output. Merz has also argued that an AfD victory could turn away foreign investment from the state.Founded in 2013, support for the AfD has grown significantly in recent years.The AfD doubled its national vote share in 2025, and is the country’s most popular party nationally, polling at 28%, according to a recent INSA poll. At the same time, support for the federal government led by Merz, which is struggling to revive a sluggish economy, has fallen to historic lows. In the same INSA poll, Merz’s conservative party had 20% support. In Saxony-Anhalt, 87% of voters were dissatisfied with the federal government, according to an ARD poll.Siegmund has said he wants to become state premier and eventually bring the AfD to victory in the 2029 national elections. What the results mean for the AfDWhile the election delivered the AfD a commanding victory, the party still lacks enough votes to govern alone. With 39 seats in the 83-member legislature, the party remains three short of an outright majority, and faces no obvious path to obtaining it.Germany’s established parties have long refused to work with the AfD, continuing their firewall against cooperating with the far-right. State premier Sven Schulze acknowledged defeat but his party, the CDU, said it would explore talks with other parties about forming a multiparty coalition.The AfD could find unlikely support in the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW, which scraped into parliament with 5.3% of the vote. BSW has rejected the firewall and expressed a willingness to speak with the AfD, although it said it would not elect either Siegmund or Schulze as premier.Siegmund has thus far ruled out leading a minority government or adopting an informal arrangement that would leave his government depending on unsteady support. “If necessary there’ll just be new elections, then we’d just get 50 or 55%,” he told ZDF on election night. He said, however, that he would be willing to work with individual lawmakers or parliamentary groups.Thousands joined an anti-AfD demonstration on Saturday in the regional capital of Magdeburg. Some carried banners that read, “life is better without Nazis.” One protester, Laura Saalfeld, told AFP, “Whatever the results, the atmosphere will change. Far-right sympathisers will show themselves more openly on the streets.”