ANN ARBOR, Mich. — Imagine December never happened.Imagine everything that followed Michigan’s loss to Ohio State was a bad dream and Kyle Whittingham never rode his Harley-Davidson into the Big House. Sherrone Moore would be entering Year 3 with a seat somewhere between moderately warm and blazing hot. Fans would be talking themselves into 10 wins and a breakout season from Bryce Underwood while quietly fearing the bottom might drop out. The mood would be a mix of confidence, desperation and nagging dread.An unscientific analysis suggests fans feel better about the direction of the program under Whittingham while feeling less sure about what it means for the Wolverines in 2026. Eighty-eight percent of fans said they feel hopeful and optimistic, according to The Athletic’s 2026 Hope-o-Meter survey, but there’s no consensus about how that will translate in the win column.“I didn’t choose optimistic because I think they are going to have a better record than last season or make the Playoff,” wrote reader Johnny N. “Rather, I chose the sunnier side of things because there is hope of cleaning up the program from the mess it’s been entangled in. Anything less than three losses would be amazing, and anything more than four losses would be very disappointing.”Because the schedule is significantly more difficult, the conventional wisdom is that Michigan could be a better team in 2026 without equaling last year’s 9-3 regular-season finish. If Moore were still the coach, he’d be heading into a make-or-break season with pressure to make the College Football Playoff, tough schedule or not. That pressure doesn’t exist for Whittingham in the same way, though it will come along soon enough.Three storylines to watch: Indiana, Arch and KiffinStewart MandelA Big Ten championship is always the goal at Michigan, Whittingham said, this season included. Lots of teams say that, but only a few have the rosters to accomplish it. Oregon does. Ohio State does. Reigning national champion Indiana does. Does Michigan?The Athletic’s projections model gives Michigan a 4 percent chance of winning the Big Ten, which puts the Wolverines in the conference’s second tier alongside USC and Penn State. Most fans are tempering expectations, recognizing the challenges of a top-to-bottom transition like the one Michigan is undergoing. What awaits on the other side of that transition is still a mystery.Will Whittingham return Michigan to the upper echelon of the Big Ten? Or does this era of Michigan football have a ceiling somewhere below the CFP elite? The answer might not come this season, but these next 12 games will give the Wolverines a clearer picture of where they stand.“Our team goal is to win the Big Ten,” Whittingham said. “If you do that, you’re going to have a chance to play beyond that. Right now, at Michigan, how could it not be a goal to win the Big Ten?”Schedule analysisMichigan has the 18th most difficult schedule in the FBS, according to The Athletic’s model. The only Big Ten team with a tougher schedule is Ohio State, three spots higher on the list.DateTeamSept. 5Western MichiganSept. 12No. 10 OklahomaSept. 19UTEPSept. 26No. 22 IowaOct. 3at MinnesotaOct. 17No. 18 Penn StateOct. 24No. 6 IndianaOct. 31at RutgersNov. 7Michigan StateNov. 14at No. 2 OregonNov. 21UCLANov. 28at No. 1 Ohio StateThe schedule breaks neatly into four tiers. The top tier consists of Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana, the Big Ten’s three national championship contenders. The second tier consists of Oklahoma, Iowa and Penn State, teams in the CFP mix that come to Ann Arbor. Tier 3 includes Michigan’s remaining Big Ten games: at Minnesota and Rutgers, at home for UCLA and Michigan State. That leaves the nonconference games against Western Michigan and UTEP in Tier 4.This is a tough schedule, but the saving grace is that Michigan plays eight home games and leaves Ann Arbor only once before Halloween. It’s not unthinkable that Michigan could be 6-0 and ranked in the top 10 when Indiana comes to the Big House on Oct. 24. Two potential trap games are at Minnesota on Oct. 3 (sandwiched between Iowa and Penn State) and UCLA on Nov. 21 (sandwiched between trips to Oregon and Ohio State).As tough as this year’s schedule looks, Michigan’s 2027 schedule is significantly tougher. The Wolverines play Ohio State and Oregon at home and travel to Texas, Iowa, Indiana, Penn State, Michigan State and UCLA. Whittingham might want to bank some wins this season, because there won’t be many easy ones in Year 2.CFP pathThe Athletic’s model gives Michigan a 23 percent chance to make the CFP, the sixth-highest odds in the Big Ten. Assuming Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana perform as expected, we’ll be watching to see if a fourth CFP contender emerges. Penn State has an easier path than Michigan or USC, though the Nittany Lions also have more unknowns after swapping out roughly half of their roster.It’s conceivable that a three-loss team could get an at-large spot in the CFP for the first time since the field expanded to 12 teams in 2024. Texas came close a year ago, as did Alabama the year before. Michigan would be an interesting test case if the Wolverines lose to Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State but win the rest of their games.A 9-3 Michigan team with wins against Oklahoma, Iowa and Penn State would have a compelling argument, assuming teams perform roughly as expected. The case gets even stronger if those nine wins include an upset of the Ducks, Buckeyes or Hoosiers, barring a horrible third loss somewhere along the way.The picture should be coming into focus by mid-October. By then, the Wolverines will have played Oklahoma, Iowa and Penn State at home. Sweeping those games would put Michigan in the thick of the CFP race. One loss would put pressure on the Wolverines to score an upset somewhere down the line, and two losses would leave only the narrowest path to the CFP.3 big questionsIs Rod Moore all the way back?Losing safety Brandyn Hillman to Virginia was one of Michigan’s under-the-radar portal hits. Hillman had a strong debut for the Cavaliers with an interception and a forced fumble in a Week 0 win against NC State. Meanwhile, Michigan’s depth at safety is less than ideal.Memphis transfer Chris Bracy should get the majority of the snaps at strong safety, with Moore slated to start at free safety. Moore said he’s fully recovered after three knee surgeries that cost him most of two seasons, but it’s hard to be completely convinced until he strings together a few games.“Rod is on the come,” Whittingham said Monday. “He’s going to play Saturday and play quite a bit, but he’s not quite where he was prior to the setback.”Did Michigan fix its return game?Semaj Morgan averaged 2.31 yards per punt return last season, which ranked No. 52 out of 53 returners with enough attempts to qualify. The difference between Morgan and Iowa’s Kaden Wetjen, the best punt returner in the FBS, was nearly 25 yards of field position on every return.Whittingham and special teams coordinator Kerry Coombs have said the Wolverines will use their best players in the return game, which could mean more chances for Andrew Marsh to return punts. Turning that liability into a strength could do wonders for Michigan’s offense.Is Underwood the answer?No bigger question looms over the Whittingham era. If the Wolverines get two or three seasons of above-average-to-elite quarterback play from Underwood, Whittingham should be able to build a defense and a running game to match. If Underwood gets off to a rocky start, there will be calls to bench him for backup Tommy Carr.Michigan is going to give Underwood every opportunity to live up to the $12 million NIL deal he signed as the No. 1 prospect in the Class of 2025. Whittingham wasn’t part of Underwood’s recruitment and will have to make his own decisions about where to go at quarterback. Underwood can make those decisions very easy by showing he’s the answer for this season and beyond.PredictionOf the top three teams in the Big Ten, I predict two will be as good as advertised and one will underachieve. Don’t ask me which one! If that prediction comes true, Michigan could have a chance to steal a win that looks improbable at the moment.I also predict Michigan is going to lose at least one game that fans are penciling in as a win. My guess is Iowa, but it could be Penn State, Minnesota, UCLA or Michigan State. Add that all up, and I have Michigan going 8-4 and missing the CFP for a third year in a row.Michigan fans aren’t going to bail on Whittingham if the Wolverines lose four games. They understand what he walked into. But this is also the only time he’ll get credit for not being a total train wreck. By next season, he’ll be judged in the same way all Michigan coaches are judged — by trophies in the trophy case and victories against Ohio State.