ANALYSIS — Despite adverse political conditions, Republicans still have an opportunity to hold both the House and the Senate this fall. But it’s also possible that the bottom will fall out from under them, leading to heavy GOP losses reminiscent of an election 20 years ago.
Back in 2006, there was an unpopular Republican president in the White House. The country was mired in an unpopular war in the Middle East. Two-thirds of Americans were dissatisfied with the direction of the country. GOP strategists knew they were in for a potentially rough midterm election.
But that September, things got worse. GOP Rep. Mark Foley was embroiled in a high-profile scandal involving sexually explicit emails and instant messages sent to teenage pages on Capitol Hill. The media became enthralled with what House leadership knew and when they knew it, to the point that the Florida congressman went on to resign at the end of the month. But the political damage was done.
The cycle snowballed out of control against the Republican Party.
Foley, the war in Iraq, the Bush administration’s response to Hurricane Katrina, the Jack Abramoff scandal and Virginia Sen. George Allen’s “macaca” remark really weren’t connected, except it all happened on Republicans’ watch, and voters had had enough.
