With the NFL preseason finished, it’s time to check in with team executives to set expectations for the coming 2026 season one final time.The six executives polled this week ranked teams 1-16 in each conference, under the condition of anonymity to allow them to speak freely. I also asked them to place each team into four buckets: Super Bowl contenders, division contenders, sub-.500 teams and likely top-10 pickers in the 2027 draft.We start with the NFC, where the Seattle Seahawks are reigning champs, but the Los Angeles Rams are the strong betting favorite. One of the execs had the Chicago Bears atop his ballot, on the thinking that seasons rarely play out as expected. Teams are ranked below in median order, with average as a tiebreaker.1. Los Angeles RamsVotes: 2-1-1-1-1-2 | Avg: 1.3 | Median: 1 | Vegas wins: 11.5 (1st-NFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 6All but two voters moved the Rams to the top of the NFC after an offseason that saw Los Angeles overhaul its defense with Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald and two cornerbacks from Kansas City."I think they are the best team in the NFC by far," a former GM said. "Beyond all the defensive additions, Matthew Stafford is just surgical. So impressive."The Rams went 1-2 against Seattle last season largely because they finished those games with a -26.7 EPA differential on special teams."It is hard for me to go against Seattle being the top team in the NFC," the voter putting the Seahawks atop the conference said. "Talent-wise, it is going to be really close."One other voter had the Bears first, partly on the theory that things tend to play out unexpectedly."I would say there is a clear gap (between the Rams and the rest of the NFC) with the return of Aaron Donald," another voter said.Aaron Donald comes out of retirement to rejoin an 'all-in' RamsNate AtkinsThe Rams are the strongest preseason Super Bowl favorite since 2002, per covers.com."I think Myles Garrett puts them over the top," another exec said.2. Seattle SeahawksVotes: 1-2-3-2-2-6 | Avg: 2.7 | Median: 2 | Vegas wins: 10.5 (T-2nd-NFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 5 | Division contender: 1The Seahawks have an unproven offensive coordinator (Brian Fleury) after Klint Kubiak's departure to become the Raiders' coach. They spent their offseason extending key players (Leonard Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Devon Witherspoon) while the Rams were adding big names from the outside. The cornerback situation remains a worry, and it's unclear whether their top defensive chess piece, Nick Emmanwori, will be at his best physically following ankle surgery."It's hard for me to see them continuing to get better now that they are a marked man," one exec said. "A lot of people got paid. Is the hunger still there?"The transition from hunter to hunted affects every Super Bowl winner."I don't know about Super Bowl, but they are going to go deep in the playoffs," another exec said. "I think them and the Packers are probably the next (NFC) teams after L.A."Voters trust Seattle's defense while taking a wait-and-see approach with the offense."It is hard for me to think you're not going to have some kind of dropoff going from Kubiak to Fleury, even if it is in the same schematic realm," one voter said. "You lost Kubiak, you lost the Super Bowl MVP (Kenneth Walker III). I know you're excited about Jadarian Price, but …"3. Philadelphia EaglesVotes: 3-4-5-3-3-4 | Avg: 3.7 | Median: 3.5 | Vegas wins: 10.5 (T-2nd-NFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 4 | Division contender: 2With Seattle on "Hard Knocks" and the Rams making splash after splash this offseason, the Eagles are about as under the radar as can be. Reminder: Philly leads the league in regular-season victories over the past four seasons (50) while ranking second to Kansas City in postseason wins (six)."They could go either way, to be quite honest," one exec said of the Eagles, who finished 11-6 last season. "I think they will be better. The thing that was really good for them is a potential concern, and that is the receiver position and running back. Saquon (Barkley) did not have a great year. The offensive line health and age is a concern. They will still be formidable."Will A.J. Brown's departure be addition by subtraction? One voter said the pressure's on quarterback Jalen Hurts, whose relationship with Brown had grown cold and who will be playing in an overhauled offensive system under new coordinator Sean Mannion."It was hard for me to ding Philly even if the offense is unknown, even if they are taking a step back without A.J. Brown," another exec said. "Vic Fangio and that defense is going to be top five. That O-line is going to be pretty good. It is still Saquon Barkley. Could they win 16-13 every week? Probably."4. Dallas CowboysVotes: 5-8-2-4-4-3 | Avg: 4.3 | Median: 4 | Vegas wins: 9.5 (T-6th-NFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 3 | Division contender: 3All agree the Cowboys' offense appears formidable. How much can the defense improve?"Anything is better than what they did last year on defense," the voter placing Dallas second in the NFC said. "They shocked the system by trading Micah Parsons, and I just think generally speaking, new coordinators on defense create variance."No team is seeking greater variance on defense from last season than the Cowboys, who ranked 32nd in EPA per play by a wide margin, per TruMedia. They replaced Matt Eberflus with first-time coordinator Christian Parker."Quinnen Williams is good, and they have a little more girth up front, so it should be better, but they've got some unknowns there too with coaches and philosophy," the voter ranking Dallas eighth said.The voter ranking Dallas fifth thought the Cowboys' defense might outrank the Packers' defense, notable in light of the Parsons trade last year."I like the coordinator," this voter said of Parker. "He is going to help maximize what they have. The secondary is still not a strength, but they have an impressive front seven."Linebacker DeMarvion Overshown's health is a key variable multiple voters highlighted."I have defensive concerns, for sure," one said. "Do they have enough pass rush? How healthy is Overshown? How good are the corners? But they did address the interior with Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark, and I like Caleb Downs. They will be better up the middle."5. Chicago BearsVotes: 4-7-6-7-5-1 | Avg: 5.0 | Median: 5.5 | Vegas wins: 9.5 (T-6th-NFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 2 | Division contender: 4The one voter ranking Chicago atop the NFC said the Bears have an elite coach in Ben Johnson, a rising, super-talented quarterback in Caleb Williams and enough talent to take another step."I know all the regression stuff," this voter said, alluding to the Bears' ability to win seven games last season after trailing in the final two minutes. "The coach is really good, they have a really good ascending quarterback, the roster is super talented. They did all the right things in the offseason to fight the regression."The top three teams in the NFC North are tightly bunched in these rankings."I love the whole NFC North," one voter said, "but the top three all have defensive concerns."New safety Coby Bryant's season-ending knee injury hurts Chicago. The Bears still have uncertainty at left tackle.Bears still looking for starters at left tackle, safetyDan Wiederer and Kevin Fishbain"Can they win a playoff game again?" an exec asked. "Sure, but I guess that's where I cap the Super Bowl contender of like, do I see them coming out of the NFC over the Rams? I can't see it. Kyle (Shanahan), (Brock) Purdy and the Niners, they have been there, done that. Even Detroit, I trust."Another voter thought the Bears' rise under Johnson last season painted a target on their backs heading into 2026."I'm going to double down on them," the exec placing the Bears fourth in the NFC said. "They are not going to catch people by surprise this year, and the NFC North will be tough. I still think they'll be OK."6. San Francisco 49ersVotes: 7-6-4-5-8-5 | Avg: 5.8 | Median: 5.5 | Vegas wins: 10.5 (T-2nd-NFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 3 | Division contender: 3There's a gap between the 49ers' Vegas win total (tied for second in the NFC) and where voters see them headed this season. Should there be?"I think they are going to be just fine," the voter ranking the 49ers fourth in the conference said. "Veteran team, not concerned. The quarterback (Brock Purdy) is really good. We forget, because he's not this in-37-commercials guy."So much of the noise around the 49ers should be separate from what happens on the field, unless the injuries coach Kyle Shanahan suffered in a car accident limit him in any way. The science doesn't support concerns over the electrical substation near their practice fields. Owner Jed York's arrest shouldn't be more than something to discuss in the locker room. The situation with Brandon Aiyuk is largely a social media fixation, while the 49ers imposter receiver has nothing to do with the product on the field.This is still a team banking on some aging players with injury concerns."There is something missing with that group," the voter ranking San Francisco sixth in the NFC said. "You can break down their personnel and come out with average in a lot of places. I would probably take Philly's history over San Francisco. They are very similar to Detroit, but I think Detroit is probably first."7. Green Bay PackersVotes: 6-3-9-8-6-8 | Avg: 6.7 | Median: 7 | Vegas wins: 9.5 (T-6th-NFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 1 | Division contender: 5The Packers' best players on both sides of the ball — tight end Tucker Kraft and pass rusher Micah Parsons — are rehabbing season-ending injuries. Kraft could see his snaps limited early in the season, while Parsons will miss at least the first four games. Throw in Josh Jacobs' arrest on domestic-violence charges, and the buzz is subdued."Figuring out how to sort through the contenders came down to: Who do I trust?" one exec said. "I didn't trust Green Bay's O-line and Parsons' injury and the run game with Josh Jacobs' situation."The Packers finished 9-7-1 despite their injury situation last season."Jordan Love's quietly become a really good Tier 2 quarterback, and he can do some top-level stuff," one of the voters ranking the Packers sixth said. "And then I think you're going to see the maturation of previous draft classes. They'll get something out of (Matthew) Golden. I think they've had some good drafts."Much depends on Kraft and Parsons returning to health."I have concerns about their O-line, concerns about what they are doing at some of the skill positions, and we'll see," another exec said. "I'm not super high on them. It's a tough division, tough schedule."The voter ranking Green Bay third did so because he thought Love was improving and could help the Packers take another step. This voter also didn't like how the Packers' defense finished and thought new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon could provide a boost.8. Detroit LionsVotes: 8-5-7-6-10-7 | Avg: 7.2 | Median: 7 | Vegas wins: 10.5 (T-2nd-NFC)Tier votes: SB contender: 1 | Division contender: 4 | Sub-.500: 1The voter projecting Detroit to finish 11th in the NFC last year was an outlier. He also came closer than anyone else in the rankings (the Lions finished ninth).Others have come around entering 2026."They are teetering on the seesaw of whether they're going to go into one of those two-year dips to restock the roster with draft picks," said the voter ranking Detroit lowest.Detroit's Vegas win total ranks far higher than voters' expectations here."Detroit, I just don't know if they have all they need on defense to hold up," another exec said. "Offensive line is still a concern for me with those guys, but I like what they have in place on that side of the ball. Defensively, I think it's going to be a struggle to produce the style of play they need."Another voter drew parallels between the 49ers and Lions as teams that remain strong but have peaked."I questioned whether I could really have Dallas over San Francisco and Detroit, but I know what I'm getting with that (Cowboys) offense," another exec said. "That is a top-five offense with continuity, while the Lions are breaking in a new OC, and the Niners are coming off all the injury woes."9. New Orleans SaintsVotes: 10-9-11-12-13-9 | Avg: 10.7 | Median: 10.5 | Vegas wins: 7.5 (T-11th-NFC)Tier votes: Division contender: 3 | Sub-.500: 2 | Top-10 pick: 1The Saints haven't won the NFC South since 2020, Drew Brees' final season. Three of the six voters projected New Orleans to end that streak this season."The way they ended last year with the quarterback (Tyler Shough) and the head coach (Kellen Moore) was promising and checks some boxes for me as a potential team on the rise," one of these voters said.This voter forecast Washington's rise in the NFC entering Jayden Daniels' first season. Last year, he had the Lions falling to 11th in the NFC, while everyone else had Detroit contending (the Lions finished ninth in the conference)."If there were better teams in the NFC South, I think that would be more of a wow," this voter added. "I think New Orleans wins the division, and Carolina misses the playoffs."That's a bet on Shough."Yeah, he's going to be OK," another exec said. "He's a good quarterback. With (Jordyn) Tyson being hurt early, that is a little alarming. They need production from that (receiver) group. But they should be a good team in Year 2 of their system."10. Tampa Bay BuccaneersVotes: 9-10-14-11-11-10 | Avg: 10.8 | Median: 10.5 | Vegas wins: 8.5 (T-9th-NFC)Tier votes: Division contender: 3 | Sub-.500: 3The Buccaneers' streak of four consecutive NFC South titles ended last season.Only one of six voters has Tampa on top this year."The big question is, what will the run game look like?" one voter said. "The new coordinator (Zac Robinson) was in Atlanta when they struggled to marry the run and the pass. But they get a motivated Baker (Mayfield) in a contract year, and they have arguably one of the best offensive players in the division with Emeka (Egbuka), plus a ton of draft capital in the defense."With Mayfield entering his fourth season in Tampa, his unsettled contract situation remains a leading storyline. One voter suggested Mayfield could be the type of quarterback everyone loves when things are going well, but not as much during tougher times. Whatever the case, a good season would put pressure on the Bucs to step up."Defensively, they should be more physical up front, adding A'Shawn (Robinson), Rueben Bain, (Josiah) Trotter in the front seven," another voter said. "(Keionte) Scott is a physical nickel built for (Todd) Bowles' blitzes. They'll need that rush to get home with questions in the secondary outside (Antoine) Winfield (Jr.)."The Bucs won the division in 2022 with an 8-9 record, same as Carolina did last season."I think all four of those teams are gonna be under .500 again," one exec said. "So, great, you're the best of the bad teams in your division."11. Carolina PanthersVotes: 11-13-12-9-7-11 | Avg: 10.5 | Median: 11 | Vegas wins: 7.5 (T-11th-NFC)Tier votes: Division contender: 3 | Sub-.500: 3The top three teams in the NFC South — everyone but Atlanta — averaged between 10.4 and 11 in their average votes. Not much separation, in other words."It's going to be a dogfight in that NFC South," the voter slotting Carolina 11th said.Two voters were quite a bit higher on Carolina than the rest, citing personnel upgrades on defense."Carolina is ready to take a step if the quarterback (Bryce Young) does what he did at the end of last year, because they have improved greatly on defense," the voter ranking the Panthers seventh said.Panthers a QB reclamation project away from being Super Bowl contenders?Robert MaysAnother exec thought all four NFC South teams might have losing records for a second consecutive season."New Orleans beat Carolina twice last season," the exec slotting the Panthers 13th said. "I think the quarterback (Young) holds them back ultimately. I would put them behind Tampa."Tampa carries the highest Vegas win total (8.5) in the division.12. Minnesota VikingsVotes: 12-11-8-10-12-12 | Avg: 10.8 | Median: 11.5 | Vegas wins: 8.5 (T-9th-NFC)Tier votes: Division contender: 2 | Sub-.500: 4There's a big drop from the first eight teams to the next six. The fault line runs between the Packers and Vikings, even though Minnesota has had the best defense in the division statistically."I think they will get a bump from Kyler Murray, and they have the skill on offense," the voter ranking Minnesota highest said.The Vikings finished 9-8 last season despite ranking 30th in EPA per pass play. Murray ranked 15th last season among 45 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. He was 14th in his last full season (2024). That was two spots higher than then-Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold, who had a 14-3 record as a starter."With Dallas, Tampa, Minnesota and New Orleans, you can line them up any way you want," another exec said.The other voters disagreed on Dallas, but less so on the other three."Kyler may be better than what they had last year, but he's the fourth quarterback in the division," one of the execs slotting Minnesota 12th said. "And when you look at those divisions where it's clumped together, the quarterback usually is a determining factor."13. Washington CommandersVotes: 13-12-13-14-9-13 | Avg: 12.3 | Median: 13 | Vegas wins: 7.5 (T-11th-NFC)Tier votes: Division contender: 1 | Sub-.500: 4 | Top-10 pick: 1The voter highest on Washington thought Jayden Daniels' return to health was enough to lift a Commanders team that has question marks entering coach Dan Quinn's third season, including first-time coordinators on offense (David Blough) and defense (Daronte Jones)."They get Jayden back, and Terry McLaurin will be healthy," this exec said. "They've added some really good parts defensively in free agency. They have to get the offensive line solidified."Left tackle Laremy Tunsil's season-ending injury will not help."I think they are going to be bad," another exec said. "The quarterback is talented, but his style of play, unless he changes it, is a concern. The weapons around him are OK, but I don't think it's a dynamic team offensively. Defensively, they plateaued."14. New York GiantsVotes: 14-14-10-13-15-14 | Avg: 13.3 | Median: 14 | Vegas wins: 7.5 (T-11th-NFC)Tier votes: Division contender: 1 | Sub-.500: 3 | Top-10 pick: 2The voter highest on the Giants pointed to their defense."They have a lot of pieces on defense, and I really liked their draft," this exec said. "(John) Harbaugh will play everything close, and they'll be in a ton of one-score games, and we'll see what happens in the moment of truth. They're a candidate for those games to play out really well."Questions at quarterback, running back and receiver persist."I like the Giants' potential on defense," another exec said. "Abdul Carter, Arvell Reese, Brian Burns. But then I don't know how good that secondary is at corner. They lost Dexter Lawrence in the middle. On offense, Jaxson Dart's health, Cam Skattebo's health and Malik Nabers' health are all concerns. There's a lot of unknown."15. Atlanta FalconsVotes: 16-15-16-15-14-16 | Avg: 15.3 | Median: 15.5 | Vegas wins: 6.5 (15th-NFC)Tier votes: Sub-.500: 1 | Top-10 pick: 5The Falcons won their final four games last season to finish 8-9. It feels like they've lost four straight entering 2026, mostly because the quarterback situation remains a big concern."It might be the (Jack) Strand kid who winds up with that job," one exec said, referring to the undrafted rookie out of Minnesota State-Moorhead.Strand is fourth on the depth chart behind Michael Penix Jr., Tua Tagovailoa and Cooper Rush.Is Michael Penix Jr. the Atlanta Falcons' long-term answer at quarterback?Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen"I'm confused as to where the new coach's identity is with the team," another exec said.Kevin Stefanski's NFL background is mostly on offense, but coordinator Tommy Rees will call the plays. Rees debuted as a play caller in Week 10 last season, also under Stefanski, when both were with the Browns. Cleveland ranked 31st in offensive EPA per play before Rees took over and 30th thereafter, with a quarterback situation even less appealing than the one in Atlanta.Execs from other teams did not like the moves Atlanta made in free agency or in the draft, so the lack of excitement entering the season is no surprise. If the Falcons produce a solid season, they can accurately say very few gave them much of a chance.16. Arizona CardinalsVotes: 15-16-15-16-16-15 | Avg: 15.5 | Median: 15.5 | Vegas wins: 4.5 (16th-NFC)Tier votes: Top-10 pick: 6First-round rookie running back Jeremiyah Love was the most exciting thing the Cardinals had going for them entering this season. But with an ankle injury calling into question his availability for Week 1, the excitement level is subdued."Mike LaFleur is at least an offense-oriented head coach out of the McVay system, so there is going to be something there," one exec said.Would you rather have Jacoby Brissett or the Falcons' quarterbacks?"Atlanta would at least be solidified if they had Jacoby, and you'd know how to play with him," another exec said. "I love Jacoby as a guy, but if you're going into the season with him as your starter, that's kind of where your season's going to be."