Making College Football Playoff predictions seems simple on the surface: Pick four teams from the SEC and four from the Big Ten, add Notre Dame as well as the projected ACC and Big 12 champs, plus the strongest option from the Group of 6.Twelve teams, 12 spots, no problem. But this is college football we are talking about, nothing is ever that simple.Just last year, at this very moment in time, the preseason AP poll had Texas at No. 1, Penn State at No. 2, Clemson at No. 4, Notre Dame at No. 6 and LSU at No. 9. Not one of those five schools made the CFP, with Penn State, LSU and Clemson all finishing outside the top 25. So much for simple.That doesn’t mean we will have chaos again this year, but did anyone have two non-power conference schools (Tulane and James Madison) making the CFP while the ACC champion (Duke) got left out? Add in Oklahoma (No. 18), Texas A&M (No. 19), Indiana (No. 20), Ole Miss (No. 21) and Texas Tech (No. 23), and seven of last season’s 12 CFP teams were ranked outside the top 15 to open the campaign.So, that is where we will start: Which teams outside the top 15 in the preseason AP poll could make the Playoff come December and are worth considering taking a futures flyer on? Let’s stick to Power 4 schools, unless we think a second Group of 6 can crash the party … again.College Football Playoff oddsCollege Football Playoff picksPenn State: +340Preseason AP poll rank: No. 18Why not start with Penn State? The Nittany Lions are looking to do the opposite of last year, when they started 3-0 before the season turned into disaster following the double-overtime loss to then-No. 6 Oregon, with losses to Northwestern and UCLA ending the James Franklin era.Matt Campbell, who did wonders at Iowa State, comes to Happy Valley with a lot of change. He brings in 24 former Cyclones with him, from a team that started 5-0 last year and finished with eight wins.The defense should be strong with more than half of its starters back. The offense will be a work in progress, as Iowa State ranked 63rd last year and former Cyclone quarterback Rocco Becht comes to State College, as do running back Carson Hansen and a pair of wide receivers.What I really like about the Nittany Lions’ chances is their schedule. It is not a stretch to see this team start 5-0 with three cupcake non-conference games — vs. Marshall, at Temple, vs. Buffalo — then Wisconsin and Northwestern to start Big Ten play. They also avoid the conference’s Big 3 (Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana) and get No. 14 USC on their home turf, leaving only road tilts only at No. 16 Michigan and No. 17 Washington to worry about.This team could win 10 games even if it isn’t that good. And at 10-2, they would be firmly in the CFP conversation and likely be up against three-loss SEC schools (remember SEC teams have nine conference games this year), or a two-loss ACC or Big 12 team. ESPN’s FPI has Penn State’s schedule ranked seventh-easiest among Power 4 programs, which won’t help them with the committee, but +340 is a worthwhile price to be in the conversation.Who belongs in the second tier of QBs behind Arch Manning and Dante Moore?Dane BruglerLouisville: +550Preseason AP poll rank: No. 24Miami is the best team in the ACC. The Hurricanes lost the CFP title game last year and might be better this year. They are a true national title contender. We have heard all of that. But you know what else? Miami has never, ever won the ACC. That’s right. The Hurricanes made the national title game last year and didn’t even play in the ACC title game.So which ACC team could give Miami a run for its money? How about the team that beat the Hurricanes and was 7-1 to start last season? Jeff Brohm’s first three years at Louisville have each seen at least nine wins, but each have also included a costly loss that kept the Cardinals from going any further. Of Louisville’s first three losses last season, the first two were in overtime and the third was by a point.Brohm will have to break in another quarterback, former Ohio State backup Lincoln Kienholz, but he also added some great transfer wide receivers to help the offense. There are a lot of new pieces, including two new coordinators, but they have a favorable schedule that misses Miami and Clemson and gets SMU at home. After the neutral-site opener vs. ninth-ranked Ole Miss, the Cardinals could be favored in every game the rest of the way. If they break tradition and don’t lose the game they shouldn’t, they are a sneaky play to make it to Charlotte, at which point you are one win from the CFP.Houston: +850Preseason AP poll rank: No. 23Most think it’s a foregone conclusion that Texas Tech runs away with the Big 12 again. And the Red Raiders very well may do that, but let’s not forget they are breaking in a new quarterback, one they had no intention of using until the Brendan Sorsby situation went south.Meanwhile, the Cougars are coming off a 10-win season and return 12 starters, including quarterback Conner Weigman. They do have to play at Texas Tech and at Utah, but even a split of those two games could get them into the Big 12 title game — and a step away from the CFP.