Taiwan and China are back at the annual Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders Meeting, returning after all external partners were excluded in 2025. And Beijing isn’t happy about it: China’s special envoy called Taiwan’s participation “very inappropriate” and warned, “There will always be consequences.”
With multiple Pacific leaders not in attendance amid whispers of foreign interference, China-Taiwan competition is on everyone’s minds. While no Pacific country switched recognition in 2026, Beijing’s pressure campaign this year has been more systematic and intense than in any year since Naoero (formerly Nauru) flipped ties in 2024.
Under Beijing’s version of the “One China” principle – which holds that Taiwan is part of China – limiting Taiwan’s international space is an ever-present imperative. For Taiwan, defending its sovereignty entails maintaining, and where possible, expanding its diplomatic presence.
Competition across the Taiwan Strait is clearest to outside observers when countries switch recognition from Taiwan to China, yet for Beijing it never ends there. China then wants to win repeated rhetorical affirmation of the One China principle, institutional buy-in beyond the government of the day, and concrete decisions to limit Taiwan’s presence.
