A powerful El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions to much of South Africa this summer, raising concerns over heatwaves, drought and water scarcity.
South Africa is bracing for a hotter and drier summer with the South African Weather Service (SAWS) warning that a powerful El Niño event developing in the Pacific Ocean could become the strongest on record, raising the risk of drought, severe heatwaves and water shortages across the region.
The SAWS said the 2026/27 El Niño had already reached levels associated with a very strong event and was expected to intensify further during spring.
According to SAWS, ocean temperatures in the eastern-central tropical Pacific are already above the threshold used to classify an El Niño as very strong.
“A strong El Niño refers to an event where 3-monthly averaged sea surface temperature anomalies over the eastern central tropical Pacific Ocean are exceeding 1,5°C with respect to climatology, while during a very strong El Niño, this part of the ocean is 2°C warmer than normal,” SAWS said.
