Last season, the Chicago Bears smashed their 7.5-win total with an 11-6 run to their first NFC North title since 2018. To start this season, they’re sitting third on the list of odds to win the division.Their +305 odds give them a 23 percent implied probability to defend their crown, so they’re not far behind the Detroit Lions at +175 (33 percent) — or the Green Bay Packers at +240 (27 percent).My model forecasts a similarly close race that actually positions the Bears slightly ahead of the Packers. Let’s run through my model’s projections and dive into how close it could really be between the Bears and Lions.NFC North oddsNFC North projectionsTeamWinsPlayoffsDivisionSuper BowlLions10.358.8%31.5%4.2%Bears9.551.2%26.0%3.3%Packers9.449.3%24.6%2.8%Vikings8.840.5%17.9%1.9%The Bears are a tricky team to project heading into the season.First and foremost, they won seven one-score games last year, which leads me to believe that will regress a little bit. The defense also leaves something to be desired after finishing last season 30th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play when excluding turnovers. And while I believe coach Ben Johnson is one of the best offensive minds in football, and that being paired with Caleb Williams for another season should take the offense to a new level, how Williams’ development in Year 3 will be the key to their season.