Nearly 300 Iranian missiles and drones have bombarded Jordan during the Iran war, mostly targeting U.S. bases in a small Arab state that never wanted conflict with Tehran. After a July strike killed three American soldiers, a controversial petition from more than 100 Jordanian activists demanded that U.S. forces leave the country. On cue, Western angst erupted over the country’s survival. Fretful commentaries worried whether popular unrest would weaken a ruling monarchy that has long been one of Washington’s closest strategic partners in the Middle East.
Yet my recent conversations with Jordanian officials, journalists, and commentators reveal a strikingly different concern. Their frustration about the Iran war is real, but it pales in comparison to their sense of existential dread about Israel’s accelerating drive to annex the West Bank.
Jordanians assume that if Israel claimed full or partial sovereignty over the territory, many Palestinians would be forced to relocate to Jordan. This would put unprecedented pressure on the country’s demographic and political fault lines, potentially destroying the very stability that makes it a vital U.S. ally. Jordanians describe this as the al-watan al-badil, or alternative homeland scenario, a reference to the Israeli claim that Jordan should be a Palestinian homeland.
