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South Africans should gear up for a fuel price hike this week, with the latest numbers from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) pointing to this as a certainty. Energy prices have soared in 2026, driven by the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict and oil supply uncertainties around the Strait of Hormuz.While some optimism crept in during August on expectations of a peace deal being reached, nothing has materialised as yet, despite repeated claims by the US that it now controls the crucial waterway. South Africa adjusts fuel prices monthly, based on changes in international oil prices and the rand/dollar exchange rate as well as other local fuel-related costs and taxes. Local prices lag global movements by about a month.The latest data from the CEF showed an under recovery across the main fuel types sold in the country. This points to the following increases: ProductEstimated Price IncreasePetrol 95R1.07 Petrol 93R0.96 Diesel 0.05%R2.71 Diesel 0.005%R2.92Illuminating paraffin R2.12The CEF uses the term “recovery” to denote the daily difference between South Africa’s regulated fuel price, what is paid at the pump, and the actual, fluctuating cost of importing that fuel.Since local fuel prices are only adjusted once a month, a gap typically develops between the fixed pump price and the live global market prices.In addition to a global oil market that can be swayed by a multitude of factors, local prices are subject to battery of taxes that put further pressure on what’s paid at the pump. The impact of higher fuel prices has been felt by consumers and businesses alike through the year, despite the reprieve of price drops in July. Recent earnings from a number of locally listed companies highlight higher operating costs squeezing margins. In a trading update this week, retailer Woolworth noted that group sales rose 4.3% for the 2026 financial, with moderation in the second half due to inflation, fuel prices and interest rate hikes.According to Angus LePine Williams, head of operations at Shiprazor, South African e-commerce is growing fast, but for most retailers the profit isn’t following the same curve. He says the real drain isn’t marketing or pricing. It’s what happens in fulfilment: wrong courier costs, fuel surcharges, failed deliveries and returns nobody audits.Mobile provider, MTN — which reported its interim earnings this past week — noted higher operating costs for its largest business in Nigeria, where diesel accounts for up to 35% of its cost to do business. The company noted that while inflation was relatively contained in South Africa, “rising fuel and energy costs during the second quarter placed additional strain on disposable income, increasing the cost of living and reducing consumers’ discretionary spending capacity.”At $89.70, Brent crude oil is trading 24% above the $72.50 registered at the end of February when the war began. Business Day
