PremiumIt is the last week of summer and on the surface things seem quiet, with traders desperately trying to catch one last week of vacation peace; but it's hardly quiet under the hood according to Goldman derivatives guru Brian Garrett, who shares his latest observations from a week "light on green-dot attendance, but heavy on catalysts" (full note available to pro subscribers):1. Warsh was hawkish (GS note): inflation is still too high and it remains the predominant focus for the fed… Goldman continues to expect the FOMC to remain on hold but acknowledges the market’s pricing of a September hike at ~60% as reasonably founded (although Bloomberg expects a second consecutive negative jobs print in a row, and reminds readers that the Fed has never hiked rates after two negative NFP reports). Worse: while many thought a hawkish Jackson hole could bring longer end yields lower given increase in perceived fed credibility/independence, the opposite happened (10y 4bps higher on the session, and now 25bps higher on the quarter).