President Donald Trump’s intensifying economic campaign against Iran is testing the limits of the security grouping Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have spent years expanding as a counterweight to US power.The Chinese and Russian presidents will gather with their Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian for the first time since the start of the US and Israeli war against the Islamic Republic at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit that starts Monday in Kyrgyzstan. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will also attend along with leaders from Central Asian states, Pakistan and Belarus.Also Read: Forging strategic bridges: Check PM Modi's agenda for 4-day Central Asia visit, from Tashkent talks to SCO Summit in Bishkek“The message is getting clearer and louder each year that there’s emerging a new security bloc,” said Henry Wang Huiyao, founder of the Center for China and Globalization research group in Beijing. The unipolar world dominated by the US “is gone,” he said.Yet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatening an “economic D-Day” of measures to punish Iran and its backers, Tehran’s showdown with Trump risks exposing the SCO’s inability to act coherently as it marks 25 years since its formation. While the bloc has grown substantially in recent years, rivalry among member states means it’s largely failed to translate that geopolitical ambition into concrete mechanisms for action on the global stage.That’s likely to leave its leaders offering only symbolic solidarity with Tehran at the summit in Bishkek. Neither Xi nor Putin has shown any readiness to back Iran militarily and economic support has been limited. The prospect of further US sanctions is raising the stakes for a group that has sought to challenge the Western-dominated world order.“We can expect rhetorical condemnation of the US in line with normal Chinese propaganda,”said Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst for China and Northeast Asia at the Eurasia Group. “But Beijing might also be hesitant to shine a spotlight on how ineffective the SCO has been in protecting the security of one of its member countries.”Founded in 2001 by China and Russia together with the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the SCO has expanded to include India, Pakistan, Iran and Belarus as members, while Afghanistan and Mongolia have observer status and another 15 countries including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are so-called “dialogue partners.”Also Read: Plans afoot for Modi, Xi meet at SCO, to set stage for India visitThe organization’s members account for more than 40% of the world’s population, and about a quarter of global gross domestic product, according to World Bank data.For Xi, the SCO summit marks the beginning of a busy few weeks that sees him also have a state visit in Kyrgyzstan before heading on to Egypt. He’s expected to take part in the BRICS summit hosted by Modi in New Delhi in mid-September, which Putin also plans to attend, before the Chinese leader makes a state visit to Washington for a planned summit with Trump.Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian told reporters at a regular press conference in Beijing on Wednesday that Xi would hold “in-depth exchanges” with leaders on deepening SCO cooperation under the “new circumstances” in the world. Beijing stands ready to “build up consensus and write a new chapter of cooperation in Bishkek,” Lin said.Xi and Putin are expected to hold talks on the sidelines of the summit, having met around 10 times since the Russian president sent troops into Ukraine four and a half years ago. Moscow’s economic dependence on Beijing has grown substantially after Europe imposed sanctions, helping Putin to sustain the war effort.Also Read: Looking to advance India's vision for region free from terror: PM Modi ahead of SCO Summit, State Visit to UzbekistanThe Kremlin’s main expectation from the SCO summit is “to show that Russians and Putin personally are not isolated geopolitically,” said Vita Spivak, an expert on China-Russia ties at Gatehouse, a UK-based geostrategy advisory firm. “For Putin-Xi relations, the most interesting issues are military and technological exchanges, as well as energy ties.”Modi and Putin will also meet, senior Indian diplomat Sibi George said on Friday. “Both sides are expected to review the entire gamut of their bilateral relationship during the meeting between the leaders,” George added.India was initially keen on a state visit for Modi. However, those plans were dropped after it became known that Kyrgyzstan is likely to extend state visit invitations to China and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif around the SCO summit, the people said. Modi’s visit is now categorized as an official visit.Modi will discuss trade and tariff issues with his Central Asian counterparts on the sidelines of the summit, George said. US sanctions on Iran have closed India’s option of using the Chabahar port on the Gulf of Oman to reach Central Asia.India’s Ministry of External Affairs didn’t immediately respond to an email sent after office hours.While New Delhi has maintained a neutral stance over the war in Ukraine, Russia has become India’s top supplier of crude oil as shipments surged following disruption to Middle East exports over the conflict with Iran. Putin said last week that Russia would boost fertilizer sales to India.It’s possible, too, that Modi will meet with Xi, at least informally, though nothing has been confirmed so far. China and India agreed to pursue settlement of their border dispute in the latest round of high-level talks last week, underscoring a gradual improvement in relations since a deadly 2020 clash.Modi will also hold a bilateral meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Bishkek, which is expected to cover issues such as defense sales. The Caucasus country is a major buyer of Indian military equipment and talks are underway for the sale of an Indian-made medium range ground-to-air mobile missile defense system.Initially viewed in the West as an eastern rival to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, SCO members including Russia, China and Iran have conducted more joint military exercises in recent years. But the organization has also struggled to establish a development bank, common payment mechanisms and basic economic integration.“SCO leaders will try to make this summit look like a big deal, so that Donald Trump understands that there is power on the other side of this global order,” said Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Still, the West “puts so much into the SCO that doesn’t really exist,” he said.Trump has upended so many international institutions that the entire approach to global governance is changing, according to Vasily Kashin, an expert on China at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow.“It is impossible to fight for a new order because there is no order — there is complete chaos,” he said. “Everyone has an interest in ensuring that the SCO and BRICS survive and continue developing, but now they have to choose which path to take under these new conditions.”
Iran crisis puts Xi-Putin’s anti-US bloc to the test, with PM Narendra Modi in the mix
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit convenes amid US economic pressure on Iran. Chinese and Russian presidents will meet with Iran's leader at the summit. The bloc's ability to act coherently faces scrutiny due to internal rivalries. Leaders are expected to offer symbolic solidarity with Tehran. The summit highlights the evolving global order and challenges to Western dominance.










