Bill Belichick and North Carolina opened their 2026 season with an upset of TCU, defying a 9 1/2-point spread and a preseason of low expectations to win 15-10 on Saturday in Ireland.It was a noteworthy result, especially after the Tar Heels lost 48-14 last year in an opening debacle against the Horned Frogs en route to a 4-8 record. So does North Carolina beating TCU this time change the outlook for its season? What would be a successful season after starting 1-0?We asked several of The Athletic’s college football writers to reassess the Tar Heels, who are now projected to win six games in Austin Mock’s simulations.Stewart Mandel: I was skeptical UNC would be much better, but the Tar Heels got off to an encouraging start. Their D-line looks legit behind breakout defensive tackle Xavier Lewis. He was dominant Saturday (7 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks). Ohio State transfer tight end Jelani Thurman looked good as well. Too soon to say about quarterback Billy Edwards Jr.Two caveats, though: 1) TCU might not be very good — that was a rough debut for Harvard transfer quarterback Jaden Craig. And 2) It’s a difficult schedule, with games against Notre Dame, Miami and at Clemson.A bowl game is attainable, but for now I’ll bump my preseason 3-9 pick to 5-7.UNC looks like totally different team in win over TCUDavid Ubben and Jayne OrensteinMatt Baker: North Carolina outperformed my expectations, so bowl eligibility feels like a viable goal. The schedule remains tricky (Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia and Louisville look tough, and I don’t know what to make of Clemson). Two toss-up type games, Pitt and Duke, are on the road.Here’s the related question: Should 6-6 qualify as a successful season? By North Carolina’s historical standards, the answer should be no, but the bar has been lowered so much that a trip to a bottom-tier bowl feels like a victory. Before the game, I said 5-7 was the ceiling for UNC. After watching the defense perform pretty well — yes, TCU played a role in that — I’ll raise that mark to 7-5. We’ll see whether that’s enough to inspire future confidence in Belichick and the program.David Ubben: The radical competency on both sides of the ball we saw from UNC made me certain this team isn’t going to get repeatedly blown out like it did last season. There were at least two of those games last year. I left with concerns about TCU, but UNC’s defensive front looked fearsome at times and Bobby Petrino’s offensive schemes looked solid as always, despite personnel limitations. UNC is OK up front but lacks any game-changers in the passing or running game. That’s why I’m still skeptical UNC can beat a team like Notre Dame or Miami, and its schedule also has road games at Pitt, Duke and Virginia. Going to UConn is no gimme putt, either.This is a much improved team, but it’s hard for me to see the Tar Heels winning more than seven games. I’ll say 6-6, but none of the six losses are embarrassing enough to leave Belichick with no answers to uncomfortable questions postgame, which seemed like an almost weekly ritual last season.Chris Vannini: Saturday’s win didn’t dramatically change my outlook, but I can see a path to 6-6. Edwards looked comfortable in Petrino’s offense, the Tar Heels were able to run the ball late when they needed to and the defense adjusted well at halftime to shut down TCU’s run game. But there remains a clear talent issue, especially on offense, and most teams will not make the bevy of self-inflicted mistakes that TCU did, from the 10 penalties to the high snap that resulted in a safety. The win showed progress, but just a small amount at this point. There remain a lot of games on that schedule against teams with far more talent.Manny Navarro: I think North Carolina is a bowl team now, and I was borderline on it entering the season. Saturday’s result raised UNC’s floor more than its ceiling in my eyes. The defense was organized and rebounded well from some early breakdowns on stretch running plays, and Petrino’s offense doesn’t look like the mess Freddie Kitchens’ group was last year.The key to it all will be how Edwards plays going forward. He has enough skill talent around him to put up more than the 19.3 points and 4.94 yards per play the Tar Heels averaged last season (120th among FBS schools). But I still think Notre Dame, Miami, Louisville, Clemson and Virginia are all better teams who will beat the Tar Heels. NC State, Pittsburgh and Duke are likely coin-flip games.