Open Source Isn't a Business Model Choice Anymore. It's the Only Option.

A few weeks ago, on the sidelines of an event at La Felicita (Station F), I got into a conversation with the CEO of Aiven about open-source business models. His take was clear and, frankly, well-earned: the managed cloud is the correct way to monetize open source. Let the community build the moat, put a hosted layer on top, and sell the operational convenience.

He's not wrong. That model has minted real companies. But I think it's already starting to look like the previous era's answer to a question the AI era isn't asking anymore.

The moat that keeps collapsing

Here's the pattern, and it's not subtle if you look at it in sequence.

MongoDB relicensed its server from AGPL to the Server Side Public License in October 2018, a little over a year after going public. The trigger was AWS DocumentDB, a compatible managed service competing directly with MongoDB's own cloud offering. Debian, Red Hat, and Fedora dropped the package, and by 2021 the Open Source Initiative had gone on record saying SSPL doesn't actually meet the Open Source Definition.