New research presented at the Annual Meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) in Milan, Italy (Sept. 28–Oct. 2) estimates that the number of people living with type 1 diabetes (T1D) worldwide will increase by 29%, from 9.4 million in 2025 to 12.1 million in 2049. In addition, the number of new cases per year is estimated to increase by 14% during this period.
The development of these estimates, using the DIAMOND-T1D model, has been led by Professor Anders Green of Steno Diabetes Center Odense in Denmark.
The EASD Annual Meeting host nation of Italy, along with other high-income countries (HIC), will see large increases in the number of people living with T1D (prevalence) in 2049 compared with 2025. For example, the U.K. will see numbers increase by around one-third (more than 100,000), from 313,725 to 420,551 under the model. The U.S. will see an increase of more than half a million, from 1,492,825 to 2,055,235.
Italy's increase of 16% is predicted to be less steep but will still result in an estimated 239,145 people living with T1D in the country in 2049, compared with an estimated 205,499 in 2025. Despite this increase in prevalence, the annual number of new cases (incidence) will remain similar in 2049 compared with 2025 in these and other HICs.
