For the Lecornu government, simply staying afloat would already come as a relief. This Friday, one month before the 2027 finance bill is submitted to the National Assembly, Fitch will deliver its verdict on France's sovereign rating.
For now, the agency assigns an A+ rating to the EU's second-largest economy, with a stable outlook. The country lost its double A in September 2025, when Fitch penalised political instability in a post-dissolution context marked by the short-lived Barnier and Bayrou governments, which spent 99 and 270 days in power respectively. This assessment was confirmed in March 2026.
Speaking to Euronews, Hadrien Camatte, senior economist for France, Belgium and the eurozone at Natixis CIB, is betting on the status quo, "the most likely scenario", even though "a move to a negative outlook cannot be ruled out".
"This is the first concrete impact of the dreadful summer we've just been through"
Since March, explain Hadrien Camatte and his colleague, rates strategist Théophile Legrand, the macroeconomic environment has somewhat deteriorated. The two experts point in particular to a downward revision of growth forecasts for 2026, "in the wake of the war in the Middle East". While in March Fitch was projecting 1% growth in 2026, the government at the same time lowered its forecast to 0.7%, while Natixis CIB was anticipating growth of 0.6%.
