Club football’s most prestigious competition is almost here again.The draw for the league phase of the 2026-27 edition of the Champions League took place in Monaco this evening, with some glorious-looking fixtures in store over the next few months, beginning with matchday one on September 8-10.With the draw fresh in their minds, The Athletic’s experts break down what they are looking forward to seeing, who might flourish or fail, and make their top-eight predictions.Which league phase game caught your eye in today’s draw?James Horncastle: Roma vs Real Madrid. Jose Mourinho returns to the Eternal City. He left the club’s Trigoria in tears after the Friedkins flew in under the cover of darkness and sacked him two and a half years ago. It is hard to overstate how loved Mourinho is in Rome. While outsiders don’t consider it much of an achievement, the Conference League he won in his first season was the club’s first trophy in 14 years.He then took Roma to the Europa League final the following year. Gian Piero Gasperini has achieved what the Friedkins dearly desired: long-overdue Champions League qualification. This should be a magnificent occasion at the Olimpico, although I’m also looking forward to Champions League debutants Como welcoming PSG to the lake and their coach Cesc Fabregas returning to the Camp Nou.Seb Stafford-Bloor: Arsenal vs Real Madrid. An obvious pick, but a worthy one. Whether Yan Diomande has been properly woven into the side by then remains to be seen, but think about that front-three — Diomande, Vinicius Junior, Mbappe — if he has. Arsenal’s defence can expect to face the fire that night. It’s a game that does not need any jeopardy to be compelling.A game against Real Madrid will bring back good memories for Declan Rice and Arsenal (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)Cerys Jones: Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona. Yes, we’ve seen it before, but that doesn’t make it any less tasty. Their goalfest of a quarter-final in 2024 was one to remember, with PSG coming from behind to win over two legs. And there’s a nice little striker subplot this year: Ferran Torres opened the scoring against PSG for Barca last year. Goncalo Ramos scored the Parisians’ last-minute winner. Now, Torres has effectively taken his place in Paris and will be stepping out with a point to prove.Tim Spiers: Away from some of the more obvious match-ups, Aston Villa vs Paris Saint-Germain at Villa Park will be very rowdy and very fun. It’s a repeat of the Super Cup from the other week, of course, but it’s also a repeat of that brilliant quarter-final in 2025 when Villa gave the eventual champions a huge fright, coming from 2-0 down on the night to win 3-2, but falling one goal short of forcing extra time. The atmosphere that night was otherworldly.Which big team is most at risk of not qualifying for the last 32?Liam Tharme: Aston Villa, which would be a real shame given they earned their place by winning the Europa League last year. So many departures and squad churn manifested horribly on matchday one, when they were down 4-0 away to Brighton & Hove Albion, also seeing debutant midfielder Joao Gomes sent off. They had issues playing out, twice conceding from turnovers, and struggled defending their box too. Emery is known for his cup and European prowess, but this will be a huge test.Horncastle: Since the new format began, only Newcastle and Man City, among Premier League teams, have needed a play-off to reach the Round of 16. Last season four of five English representatives, including Thomas Frank’s Tottenham, finished in the top eight. It offered a reminder of the league’s strength as derived from its unmatched financial muscle. Bundesliga teams, outside of Bayern and Dortmund, have, by contrast, had discreet shockers. Take Eintracht Frankfurt last year. RB Leipzig the year before. I am inclined to go with Leipzig again here. New coach Martin Demichelis was hounded out of River Plate. He could not keep Mallorca up either. Can you tell I’m not convinced?Jones: I think Villa could be in real trouble. I recognise James’ point about how Premier League teams seem to glide through this format, even against expectations — hello, Thomas Frank’s Tottenham — but their issue is twofold. After so many changes to the spine of the team, right from the goalkeeper all the way through to the striker, they risk lacking cohesion. I also think their squad depth is going to be seriously tested.Can Unai Emery guide Aston Villa to the Champions League knockout stages again? (Glyn KIRK / AFP via Getty Images)Spiers: Of the English clubs involved, Aston Villa would appear to be most at risk in theory, but in Unai Emery they have a master of European football in charge so I’m not concerned about them yet. By contrast, given this is Michael Carrick’s first ever European campaign in the dugout (and Andoni Iraola’s too, at Liverpool) I’d have question marks over how deep they can go in the competition, particularly as their squad depth is also a bit whiffy.Stafford-Bloor: Manchester United could have had an easier draw. Without meaning to overreact to their Premier League defeat to Hull City, it’s difficult to imagine them getting much from Bayern or Atletico Madrid, both of whom are superior sides, and those trips to face Como and Sporting Club look full of peril.Who’s your dark horse for this season?Tharme: Looking outside of the top five European leagues, PSV Eindhoven. They are Dutch champions in the past three seasons and have a good record of reinvention under head coach Peter Bosz, something to be tested again following the departure of star boy Ismael Saibari to Bayern Munich. They scored as many goals as they conceded in the league phase last year (16), recording big wins away to Liverpool (4-1) and at home over Napoli (6-2), though four defeats meant they did not progress.Horncastle: True to form I will pick a Serie A club. Como are making their debut in the competition. Cesc Fabregas is one of the brightest coaches in Europe. Every year he finds a way to kick this team on. My only doubt is Como are in pot four. Pre-season games against Arsenal and Liverpool will have prepared them a little for what’s to come. But I’m going to go with Roma. This team still has a core group of players who won the Conference League and reached the Europa League final. Manager Gian Piero Gasperini has winning experience in Europe with Atalanta. It’s year two of his project in the capital. The summer transfer window looks to have upgraded the squad. Choose the Lupi.Could Roma be a dark horse in this season’s Champions League? (Paolo Bruno/Getty Images)Jones: In terms of who could actually make a surprise push for the final, Atletico Madrid. They haven’t reached the final since 2016, but away from the incessant (and last weekend, literal) noise around Julian Alvarez’s future, they have done good business this summer. Cristian Romero adds to their already formidable knack for no-nonsense defending, and while they’re not exactly renowned as great entertainers in attack, Lee Kang-in — who can finally grab the spotlight for himself after leaving Paris Saint-Germain — is a fantastic addition. Bayer Leverkusen’s flying full-back Alejandro Grimaldo adds further quality. Atletico made it to the semi-finals last year and I think they have the best chance of upsetting PSG, Bayern, Arsenal, or Real to go one better in 2027.Spiers: Fenerbahce, back in the Champions League proper for the first time since 2009, incredibly, should deliver entertainment and will be an outside bet, certainly not to win the competition, but to enjoy a decent run. They can almost put out an XI of former Premier League players in Romelu Lukaku, Ederson, N’Golo Kante, Mason Greenwood, Marco Asensio, Matteo Guendouzi, Nathan Ake and Nelson Semedo and Fener should be fun, although the length of Guendouzi and possibly Greenwood’s bans after their Lyon antics in midweek could be decisive.Give us the name of one unsung talent who will emerge as a star?Jones: I know that choosing a player who has scored in a Champions League final really, really pushes the boundaries of ‘unsung’ — but I wonder if this is the season where Senny Mayulu establishes himself as a starting presence in the Champions League for PSG. He’s played just shy of 500 minutes in the competition over two seasons and managed four goals in that time, including the fifth in PSG’s rout of Inter in the 2025 final. He flies under the radar compared to the bona fide global superstars around him and I would like to see more of him.Tharme: Inter Milan’s Pio Esposito is one to watch. The 21-year-old came up through their academy and is a proven goalscorer. He netted twice in this competition last year — against Union Saint-Gilloise in the league phase and in their first-leg play-off round defeat to Bodo/Glimt — and has just signed a new contract. Head coach Cristian Chivu plays the same 3-5-2 that Inter have used for years and reached two finals using, so there should be minutes for Esposito.Pio Esposito will be one of Inter’s chief goal threats in this season’s Champions League (Claudio Villa/Getty Images)Horncastle: Dortmund have spent big on Greek talent this summer. They cut PAOK a €26m cheque for Giannis Konstantelias then paid €30m for KRC Genk’s Konstaninos Karetsas. A Belgian youth international until he chose to represent Greece, Karetsas has a wand of a left foot and is an outrageous chance creator. The teenager laid on 15 assists in all competitions last season. Is it any wonder Dortmund feel good about beating AC Milan to his signature?Stafford-Bloor: James has taken Dortmund’s new Greek duo — they are scandalously talented — so I’ll pick Bayern Munich’s Nathaniel Brown. He made his competitive debut in the German Super Cup last weekend and looked as if he had been playing for the club for years. Brown is so versatile, he can play as a left-back, a right-back, and further forward, but he will push into midfield in a way that will not only make Bayern better in that area, but also highlight what a good player he is.Which World Cup star are you looking forward to watching in the Champions League?Jones: Ismael Saibari. His dink for Morocco against Brazil was one of my favourite goals of the tournament. He has tasted Champions League football before with PSV Eindhoven, but never past the round of 16. I’m excited to see if he can help push on a Bayern side that keeps going out in the most thrilling but agonising ways.Tharme: Johan Manzambi for Aston Villa. Partly because Unai Emery’s squad is so threadbare, but mostly because of how talented and versatile he is. Still only 20, he brought Switzerland’s attack to life at the World Cup, filling the Xherdan Shaqiri void in their attack. Now he needs to do something similar for the Europa League winners, who have seen Ollie Watkins follow Morgan Rogers out the door, albeit with Nicholas Jackson set to come in. Manzambi is still nursing a knee injury, so might miss the first gameweek.Horncastle: I was in Bergamo when Bayern kind of ended an era for Atalanta with a 6-1 win. The locals gave up on finding Gasperini disciples to carry on his work and have since broken completely with the past by hiring Maurizio Sarri. I wonder how much of that was down to Michael Olise causing Atalanta’s tried and tested man-marking system to collapse with his silky dribbling and incisive passing. Every Bayern game thereafter became appointment viewing for me. Olise was sensational for France at the World Cup too.If you enjoyed Olise at the World Cup, he’ll be back for Bayern for the Champions League (Stuart Franklin/Getty Images)Stafford-Bloor: Ismael Saibari. He’s precisely the sort of versatile forward who should profit from playing for Vincent Kompany and within a system which depends on attacking players jiving with one another. He’s an excellent forward, we knew that already, but that talent now has some proper weight behind it.Spiers: Yan Diomande’s first foray into the Champions League with Real Madrid should be box office. As we saw both in the Bundesliga with RB Leipzig last season and with Ivory Coast at the World Cup in the summer, he’s an elite level forward.This is year three of the new format — do you like it?Horncastle: People fixate on whether the jeopardy is real or not. I concentrate on the Champions League continuing into January. There is no break. I also like the play-off round even if the Italians keep making a mess of it.Tharme: Yes and no. I quite enjoy seeing more big teams matched up early on, though the lack of jeopardy is quite jarring, as is the fact that so many clubs being involved means the table does not really make any sense until the final round of games. The extra play-off round is a bit of a yawn too, while the no repeat format has thrown up some inequitable fixtures — Paris Saint-Germain head coach Luis Enrique has been very vocal about his side being given tougher league phrase opponents than most, not that it has stopped them winning consecutive European crowns.Jones: I know I’m likely in a minority here, but I do. Not having the same opponents twice in the first stage keeps teams guessing more than if they face the same opponents home and away, and there is more movement on the final matchdays. The gap between the richest and most established clubs and the minnows still leads to some predictable results, and that’s a wider issue for the game — but it’s still not as predictable as watching a side beat the same team at home in the group stage that they already beat away in the group stage.The play-off ‘punishment’ round has already produced some great ties (Pierre-Philippe MARCOU / AFP via Getty Images)Stafford-Bloor: It’s fine. It’s too long and the individual games in the group stage mean too little, but I’m bored of hearing myself complain about it. I do like the playoff-punishment round, which has already created some wonderful memories, and the knockout rounds are unaffected. It’s like everything in the modern world: it’s a bit worse than it used to be, but it’s better than it probably will be in five years’ time.Spiers: I think overall it’s been a success, which is annoying because it was only introduced for scurrilous financial reasons. The madcap final day of 18 simultaneous group matches is ludicrously entertaining and gave us that jaw-dropping moment last season when Benfica keeper Anatoliy Trubin put them through in the 98th minute of their final match against Real Madrid. I miss home/away match-ups in the group stages, but the bonus knockout round probably makes up for that.Which team do you wish was in the competition but missed out?Horncastle: It’s been stunning to see Hearts fall out of the Champions League play-offs, the Europa League preliminaries and only make the Conference League after a penalty shoot-out against Rapid Vienna. They were such a great story last season. I like Amsterdam though. As a traditionalist I want Ajax in the competition. After teaching the Spanish how to play football in the 70s, the reverse is happening. Xavi is the Netherlands coach. Michel is in charge of Ajax.Jones: Milan, because the more opportunities for Champions League nights at the San Siro before it’s knocked down, the better. Thankfully Inter’s participation means there will be at least four this season. Also Bayer Leverkusen, who were perhaps unlucky to meet Arsenal in the round of 16 last season: they’ve dropped down into the Europa League.Tharme: Marseille. I know they have not made it into the knockout rounds since 2011-12, but there’s something special about the cauldron of noise that is the Velodrome. Last year they somehow conspired to finish 25th and go out after the league phase, losing their final two matches by 3-0 scorelines. Defeat in Bruges opened the door for that remarkable late Benfica goal to qualify at home to Real Madrid. The Champions League is always more entertaining and chaotic with Marseille involved.Marseille’s magnificent Stade Velodrome will be missed in this season’s Champions League (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)Spiers: We all really miss Chelsea. Only joking. Any Champions League without big clubs like Milan, Ajax and Juventus and big atmospheres like Celtic Park or the Stade Velodrome feels worse off for it, but Bodo/Glimt showed last year how important it is to open things up for other nations and clubs. Sabah and Viking all the way.And finally, predict the top eight in the league stageTharme: Arsenal, Bayern, Inter, Barcelona, Man City, Dortmund, Atletico Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain. (An outside shout for me would be Lens, while I think Liverpool have a lot of question marks.)Horncastle: Arsenal, Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern, Barcelona, Inter, Real Madrid, Manchester City, RomaJones: Paris Saint-Germain, Arsenal, Bayern, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico, Inter, Borussia Dortmund.Stafford-Bloor: Bayern, Paris Saint-Germain, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid.Spiers: Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Inter, Lens
Champions League draw: Predictions, key games, star players and surprise packages
The Athletic's writers look ahead to the 2026-27 Champions League campaign











