The Indianapolis Colts haven’t won the AFC South since 2014, winning 10 or more games just once since (2018). Their hopes after an 8-2 start to last season were quickly dashed after a couple one-score losses in Weeks 12 and 13 were followed by losing Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles in Week 14, losing out to finish 8-9.Now with Jones back, do the Colts have a chance to hang with the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars in the hunt for the division crown and playoffs?Their +380 odds at DraftKings give them around a 20 percent implied probability to pull it off. Let’s take a look at the full division, then dive into projections and analysis from my model.AFC South oddsAFC South projectionsTeamWinsPlayoffsDivisionSuper BowlTexans9.355.0%36.4%2.7%Jaguars9.152.3%32.9%1.8%Colts8.341.3%23.7%1.2%Titans5.815.3%7.0%0.3%It could be a very close race in the AFC South, especially with Texans wide receiver Jayden Higgins now sidelined for the season with a torn ACL. Their offensive line has already limited their offensive production in recent seasons, so how much of a step forward can the offense really take with limited receiving options? Their defense is elite, which keeps their floor quite high, but I’m not confident enough in their offense to run away with the division.