Bitcoin has entered the early phase of a new bull market after rallying more than 25% since early last week, but it still needs to close above its 365-day moving average, which currently stands near $83,000, for "official" confirmation, according to CryptoQuant.
The onchain analytics firm said bitcoin moved as high as over $81,000 this week due to two macro catalysts: the U.S. Treasury's plan to double its long-term government bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation from Sept. 9, and President Donald Trump's comments suggesting the U.S. government may be considering buying bitcoin.
"Historically, bitcoin's bull markets have 'officially' begun when price crosses above its 365-day moving average (red line in the chart), and bear markets when it crosses below — a definitive signal in past cycles (black crosses in the chart)," Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said in a Tuesday report. "Price closed at $79,000, roughly 5% below the 365-day MA, now at $83,100. A decisive break above $83,000 would confirm the new bull market; until then, that level is likely to act as initial resistance, with the possibility of an early bull market correction."
CryptoQuant said its Bull Score has also jumped from 30 to 80 in one week, its strongest reading since Oct. 6, 2025, when bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $124,000. The firm said eight of the 10 onchain, market and valuation metrics in the score are now flashing bullish.
