Bernstein analysts expect bitcoin to reach a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027 and around $300,000 at the peak of its next cycle in 2029, arguing that a broader "debasement trade" could provide an additional macro tailwind for the cryptocurrency.
In a note to clients on Wednesday, the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said the 40-year era of declining interest rates has come to an end, with governments facing rising debt-servicing costs as sovereign debt levels hit $40 trillion in the U.S. "Rising yields create a self-reinforcing cycle of higher interest expenses, larger fiscal deficits, and increased borrowing needs, making debt sustainability a growing policy challenge," the analysts said. Bernstein expects policymakers to ultimately favor currency debasement over fiscal stress, potentially increasing demand for scarce assets that cannot be easily created or diluted, including bitcoin.
That thesis is also showing up in exchange-traded fund trading activity. Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas said Tuesday that the "debasement trade is starting to replace AI mania," with BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, and SPDR's gold ETF, GLD, returning to the top 10 most-traded ETFs and displacing some semiconductor funds that dominated the rankings over the summer.
