Central bankers from around the world are heading to the mountains of Wyoming later this week for the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. The main event will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech on Friday.The Fed has often used the yearly event as a way to forecast its longer-term plans: how it’s thinking about the economy and interest rates, and whether it might change its approach to interest rate policy.That said, Fed watchers have noted Warsh is kind of a closed book when it comes to forecasting any of the Fed’s plans.Economists certainly want to hear from Kevin Warsh on a lot of topics. David Kelly, chief global strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, said he wants some clarity on the Fed’s outlook.“How they’re thinking about a slowly declining inflation rate, how are they thinking about overall economic growth and the risks on both sides, and ultimately whether they’re OK with the level of interest rates. I’d like to hear that,” he said.But Kelly said what he’d like and what he expects are two different things.“As economists, we’d like a big slice of cake, but if we don’t get a slice of cake, we’ll look carefully for any crumbs,” he said.There could be some crumbs on Friday.Carola Binder, an economics professor at the University of Texas at Austin, said she’s hoping Chair Warsh will talk more about some task forces he created earlier this year.“One of the task forces is devoted to data. It’s supposed to, quote, ‘improve the quality and timeliness of real economic signals that inform the Federal Reserve’s policy judgments,’” she said.Chair Warsh has said that he thinks the Fed should rely more on private-sector data instead of government reports. Binder said she’d like to know more.“When we’re trying to think about what the Fed might do next, it’s important to know, which of those measures do they think are useful?” she said.The speech could also give us a better sense of who Kevin Warsh is.Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and former Fed economist, went back and looked at the first Jackson Hole speeches that previous Fed chairs made.“So Ben Bernanke had the very economic history lens. Janet Yellen, deep dive on the labor market. Jay Powell talked about risk management. Those weren’t just topics, they were also their approach to being a Fed chair,” she said.Sahm said Warsh could give us something similar. It doesn’t have to be about the Fed’s plans, it could just be about why he’s held interest rates steady so far.“It’s like, these are decisions the Fed has already made, as he has been chair. Just talk to us about it. Why are you doing that? What data are you looking at? What are you thinking through?” she said.That might not be the speech we get, but Sahm said it’s the speech we deserve.
Will Fed Chair Warsh actually say anything in his big Friday speech?
Warsh has said that he doesn't want to forecast what the Fed plans to do. So economists are hoping for clues into how he thinks.









