Anthropic's Best Model Can't Hold Users
Anthropic builds the best AI model in the world. Prediction markets agree — Polymarket gives the company 72% odds of holding the crown through year-end 2026. Fable 5 tops SWE-Bench Pro at 80.3%, a full 11 points ahead of its nearest competitor. It was so capable that the US government briefly pulled it from public access under export control rules.
And yet, according to data published by the Financial Times this week, Fable 5 accounts for just 11% of enterprise spending on Anthropic's tools. Not 11% of the broader AI market — 11% of spend on Anthropic's own platform. The older, cheaper Opus 4.8 surged from 15% in early June to over 50% by late July. Anthropic's newer Opus 5, released at half Fable's price, overtook it within weeks.
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The thesis here is not that Anthropic is failing. The company's annualized revenue hit $65 billion in July, up from $47 billion in May. It has 6,000 customers spending $100,000 or more annually. The IPO filing targets a valuation north of $2 trillion.
