Fertility has fallen across much of the world, with countries in East Asia showing especially steep declines. Japan has long been a prominent example. Its total fertility rate (TFR) — the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime — was approximately three in the early 1950s but has since fallen steadily, reaching a record low of 1.14 in 2025. This rate is well below the replacement level of 2.1 and among the lowest in the world.
Declining fertility can confer some advantages, such as promoting economic growth by stimulating innovation. But together with increases in life expectancy, it also drives population ageing and decline, which in turn generates labour shortages, falling saving rates, strain on public pension finances and a shrinking economy.
Since people seldom have children outside of marriage in Japan, one set of explanations for the decline in Japan’s TFR concerns marriage decisions. Given that the number of children married couples have has remained roughly constant at about two since 1970, an important driver behind the decline in Japan’s TFR appears to be the fall in marriage rates. The proportion of Japanese women who had not married by age 50 increased from about 3 per cent in 1970 to around 18 per cent in 2020.
