Israel-Turkiye rivalry over Syria is reshaping the region

Abu Al-Duhur airbase following Israeli strikes, Syria, Aug. 18, 2026. (Reuters)

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The expert consensus was that if any power was to challenge the collective self-defense of NATO, it would be Russia. The fear has been for some years that President Vladimir Putin might launch an attack on a smaller NATO member, perhaps in eastern Europe or the Baltic, to test if the world’s most powerful military alliance would hold together.