“I don’t want to be reminded of spring. Spring in this horrible city. You remember the woods and how we went and picked the little wild daffodils? Ah, life was so happy, then, so easy. We didn’t know what was coming.”
—“Verdict,” Agatha ChristieBy now, any thought that crossed your mind earlier this month about a magical run to the wild card has evaporated, less because the New York Mets are playing poorly and more because the San Diego Padres are now 11 games over .500 and on pace for 88 wins. The Mets would need to go 29-2 to match that. Although no team has ever finished a season with 29 wins in 31 games, two teams all time at any point within a season have done it: the 1908 Cubs and, hey, Francisco Lindor’s 2017 Cleveland Indians.So you’re saying there’s a chance?Instead, let’s spend this morning examining a more interesting question for the final month or so of the season: Can Carson Benge or Nolan McLean make a late push for Rookie of the Year?Who should win NL MVP?Joe CrisalliThe St. Louis Cardinals’ JJ Wetherholt and the Cincinnati Reds’ Sal Stewart have been the front-runners for the award most of the year. Benge and McLean have been very good lately; is it enough to make it a contest?(For the record, I don’t have a vote for National League Rookie of the Year. Two members of the New York chapter of baseball writers do, just as two members of the other 14 chapters in the National League do.)Wetherholt is the WAR candidateThere’s no getting around the gulf between Wetherholt and the other candidates in wins above replacement. (That’s true of FanGraphs’ version of WAR, which is my preferred version, or at Baseball Reference. The two estimate the relative values of the four candidates mentioned here similarly, with Wetherholt leading Benge, who’s ahead of McLean, who’s ahead of Stewart.) Wetherholt is eighth in the National League overall in WAR, according to FanGraphs. That is built on Wetherholt’s solid offensive performance. He’s been above the league average as a hitter and plays elite defense at a premium position at second base.Wetherholt leads Benge by 1.4 wins above replacement on FanGraphs. That’s close to insurmountable in a month, but then again, that lead derives almost solely from what happened before May 1: Wetherholt had accounted for 1.7 WAR by then, Benge for -0.1. Since then, Benge has been a touch better.Stewart is the traditional stats candidateIf WAR didn’t exist, Stewart and his majors-leading RBI total would probably be running away with the award. He should finish with 30 homers and 100 RBIs.That makes it hard to find a constituency for BengeTo put Benge over Wetherholt, you’d have to discount how the Cardinals rookie’s defense is measured. Some voters might do that, and it won’t be a surprise if Benge is ahead of Wetherholt on some ballots. But, to put Benge over Stewart, you’d have to believe Benge’s defense holds some legitimate value. Again, it won’t be a surprise if Benge is ahead of Stewart on ballots. But it’s hard to find the voter who would thread that needle to put Benge ahead of both of them.McLean is fighting an uphill battleIt’s tough to win the award as a pitcher. While Paul Skenes and Luis Gil both did in 2024, that ended a nine-year drought for a starting pitcher to win the award in the NL, dating to Jacob deGrom. (Devin Williams claimed it as a reliever in 2020.) And while McLean’s season has been quite good — and it’s plausible to think he might end up the best player of this quartet — it likely hasn’t been special enough to leapfrog a solid class.If you think the NL is tough, check out the AL raceMost of the time this season, saying “Imagine the Mets were in the American League” would put things in a more positive light. (They’d be six out in the AL West.) For Rookie of the Year, though, the junior circuit has the Detroit Tigers’ Kevin McGonigle with the fourth-highest WAR among position players and the Cleveland Guardians’ Parker Messick sitting third among pitchers. (Tristan Peters is playing the role of Benge and Payton Tolle that of McLean in that race.)What would it mean if a Met were to win Rookie of the Year?So here’s why it matters more than just pride: If either Benge or McLean were to win the award, the Mets would benefit from the Prospect Promotion Initiative, introduced in the last collective-bargaining agreement. That awards teams with an extra draft pick (between the first and second rounds) if a top-100 prospect compiles a full year of service and wins Rookie of the Year. Benge and McLean were both top-100 prospects and have been on the major-league roster all season.Does finishing second do anything?In this case, no. A top-two finish in the Rookie of the Year voting does occasionally carry a reward with it, but for the player and not the team: It bestows a full year of service on a player who didn’t necessarily debut on Opening Day. (See: Skenes in 2024.) Benge and McLean, however, will both get that full year of service anyway. If A.J. Ewing stormed back to finish second, then he’d get a full year of service.Is that it for the potential extra awards?No, Benge and McLean could each earn the Mets an additional draft pick if they finish in the top three of the MVP or Cy Young balloting before they’re eligible for arbitration. That gives them two more years to do so.(Unless the new CBA blows that whole thing up. Shrug.)When is the last time the Mets had two rookies finish in the top five of Rookie of the Year balloting?For that, you’d have to go back to 1984, when Dwight Gooden won the award and Ron Darling placed fifth. Even if the Mets don’t reap any individual glory or draft-pick compensation out of Benge and McLean this season, it is really good to have two rookies play this way, especially in how they have rebounded from times of struggle earlier in the season. Having multiple players receive Rookie of the Year votes has generally meant good things are on the way for the Mets: It happened in 1972 (the year before a pennant), 1984 (two years before a championship), 2003 (three years before a division title) and 2014 (the year before a pennant).The expositionThe Mets were beaten twice by walk-offs in a series loss to the Chicago White Sox over the weekend. New York is 59-72.The Milwaukee Brewers took two of three from Atlanta despite a loss Sunday night in Williamsport, Pa. At 81-50, Milwaukee is hanging on to the best record in baseball by a game over the Dodgers.The Houston Astros went just 3-6 in a homestand against the Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels and Athletics, dropping each series. Houston still has a hold on first in the AL West, tied at the top with the Texas Rangers despite a 65-66 record. The Astros will be in New York all week, starting with a series in the Bronx on Tuesday.The pitching possiblesversus MilwaukeeLHP Zac Thornton (3-4, 3.04 ERA) versus LHP Kyle Harrison (10-3, 2.84)
