An improbable Super Bowl run wasn’t enough to earn the New England Patriots the status as “favorites” to win the AFC East. Instead, the rights to that title belong to the Buffalo Bills, whose -136 odds at DraftKings give them a 53 percent implied probability to win the division.Meanwhile, the Patriots are +125, a legitimate contender but getting underdog status compared to the Bills. Meanwhile, the New York Jets (+1900) and Miami Dolphins (+4000) are long shots.Austin Mock, The Athletic‘s predictive analyst, is projecting a similar forecast. Let’s dive into what his model projects for every AFC East team’s season — and unpack why the Bills are ahead of the Patriots in terms of expectations.AFC oddsAFC projectionsTeamWinsPlayoffsDivisionSuper BowlBills10.873.7%50.9%6.9%Patriots10.368.3%42.4%6.3%Jets5.612.3%4.3%0.1%Dolphins4.56.9%2.4%0.0%We have to start with the fact the Patriots were a tad overrated in 2025. Sure, they ran through the AFC to finish 14-3 with a Super Bowl appearance, but they played an incredibly soft schedule. It ranked dead last in the league, almost a full win easier than the next team, and about a win-and-a-half easier than average. That’s going to come back to Earth as they play the 20th-ranked schedule.