Russia’s war in Ukraine is midwife to a revolution in military affairs. Such revolutions arise from new technologies that do not merely confer an advantage, but transform the way strategists think about, and armies fight in, the battlespace. They are fundamental events in military history and thought.
Three such revolutions marked the previous century. Each began with breakthroughs at the end of one war and came to define the character of the next. The tank and airplane were first used together in 1917-18 and proved decisive in 1940. The ballistic missile and atomic bomb appeared in 1944 and 1945 respectively, and laid the foundations for Cold War nuclear deterrence. The laser beam and microchip that spread into defence systems in the 1970s and 1980s played a key role in the 1991 Gulf War.
In each case, those who grasped the coming revolution in military affairs and adapted doctrine, training and command around it gained a decisive advantage. Those who missed it, like France in 1940 and Iraq in 1991, fought the next war like the last one and faced catastrophic defeat.
The latest revolution is driven by drones and artificial intelligence. Unlike previous revolutions in war its technologies emerged early, not late. Ukraine and Russia are making this revolution as they fight, and the world is watching it unfold. But it is one thing to see it happen, another to make sense of it conceptually – to grasp its nature and predict its future. Who can fight well with new technologies and reflect on them deeply at the same time?
