Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs warms up before playing against the Anaheim Ducks at the Scotiabank Arena on March 12, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)The Auston Matthews conversation has shifted from his video game rating to a more general discussion of value, production and expectations. The Toronto Maple Leafs captain carries an annual average value of $13.25 million, and his game is a huge part of Toronto’s ability to build a competitive roster.Sid Seixeiro has stated that Matthews' numbers over the last two seasons haven't quite warranted that level of compensation. Complicating the assessment, meanwhile, is the fact that Matthews has missed significant time before undergoing knee surgery after an injury in March. Since then, he’s back on the ice in Arizona, training in advance of the 2026-27 NHL season.Is Auston Matthews overpaid by the Toronto Maple Leafs?The question is; does Auston Matthews’ recent production warrant the $53 million Toronto Maple Leafs contract? Sid Seixeiro says the numbers don’t add up for the price tag right now.Seixeiro's comments came following the release of the EA Sports NHL 27 player ratings, with Matthews rated a 92 overall. That rating has the Toronto Maple Leafs captain out of the game’s top 10 centers, with Connor McDavid leading the position at 99 overall.The rating itself is not a reflection of a player’s real-world value, but Seixeiro used it as a jumping-off point to question whether Matthews is still one of the NHL’s best centers. His argument largely centers on Matthews’ recent statistical production and the expectations that come with one of the league’s largest contracts.Matthews' current contract is for four years and $53 million, with an average annual value of $13.25 million. It also has a no-movement clause, showing the Toronto Maple Leafs are committed to their captain.Matthews finished the 2025-26 NHL season with 27 goals in 60 games, a career-low in terms of goals, and he’s been injury-plagued the last two seasons, so his availability has been a concern too.That context is important when assessing his output, and Matthews has already proven to be one of the best goal scorers in the NHL. It is highlighted by a 69-goal season in 2023-24. His recent decline, then, is a big departure from the standard. That he set earlier in his Toronto Maple Leafs career.Can Auston Matthews change the conversation in 2026-27?If Auston Matthews is healthy, he can quickly change the conversation about his contract, and the 29-year-old center is skating again after having knee surgery and recently participated in the Sun Devil Hockey Pro Camp in Arizona. The return to the ice is a positive development. But it alone doesn't guarantee a full recovery before training camp.The NHL Outlook for the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2026-27: Matthews’ health and scoring touch will be key. If he could return to his previous offensive levels, it would help make the case that his contract is still justified. Another injury-riddled or low-production season could only fuel questions about the deal.The NHL 27 grade is a snapshot of how Matthews is viewed as he enters the new season. The more meaningful test, however, will come when the Toronto Maple Leafs start playing NHL games, and Matthews gets a chance to respond on the ice.