Apple shipments expected to decline by 2% in 2026

Apple shipments expected to decline by 2% in 2026

| Photo Credit: Reuters

Apple shipments are expected to decline by around 2.1% in 2026, before returning to growth of around 2.8% in 2027, noted Counterpoint Research. However, it is likely to remain a comparatively resilient due to the sustained demand for the iPhone 17 series.“Possible higher launch pricing of the iPhone 18 series, and changes to the timing of Pro and base-model introductions across the 2026 and 2027 product cycles could affect quarterly demand and channel inventory,” the research firm expects. It is also optimistic that Apple may launch their first foldable smartphone in Q3 2026.Contrary to Apple, Samsung smartphone shipments are expected to grow by approximately 0.8% in 2026, despite wider market’s decline. Samsung is believed to do well because of their broad geographic presence, supply chain depth and more reliable access to memory and semiconductor supply.Overall, the global smartphone market may decline 14.3% year on year in 2026 due to higher component costs, reduced availability of lower priced devices and weaker consumer affordability weigh on demand.The decline is expected to reshape the competition, with Samsung expected to emerge as the leading global smartphone player in 2026.“Market conditions are expected to remain challenging in 2027, with shipments forecast to decline by a further 1.4% before a stronger recovery begins in 2028.”Premium segment is likely to continue its strong performance, while the mass market segments bear the brunt of the market retreat. “Mobile memory remains the most significant constraint, while higher chipset prices are adding pressure across premium, mid-range and legacy product platforms.”The impact on shipments will be greatest at lower price points, where component costs account for a larger share of the bill of materials and manufacturers have less room to absorb increases. Vendors are responding by raising prices, reducing lower margin configurations and concentrating resources behind fewer products and priority markets.Leading Chinese smartphone manufacturers are expected to experience substantially greater shipment pressure because of their exposure to price sensitive consumers, mid-range-focused devices portfolios and emerging markets.Across several major Chinese OEMs, shipments are forecast to decline by approximately 15% to 34% in 2026.Manufacturers are expected to respond to these challenges by reducing memory configurations, using older platforms, raising prices or discontinuing products that can no longer meet profitability targets.Pressure on shipments is expected to continue into 2027. Some leading Chinese OEMs are expected to return to modest growth, while others remain in decline as inventory, portfolio restructuring and weak demand continue to affect shipments.A stronger market recovery is forecast for 2028, with global smartphone shipments expected to grow by approximately 4.8% as component availability improves, retail pricing begins to stabilize and purchases, postponed during 2026 and 2027, are realized. The recovery is likely to favor the largest manufacturers, which are better positioned to secure components, manage financing and maintain distribution through the downturn.Foldables and on-device AI should support product differentiation and premiumization but are not expected to create a broad shipment supercycle. Toward the end of the decade, wider commercialization of 6G-capable devices should support an incremental upgrade cycle and help the market move back toward the shipment levels typically recorded during 2024 and 2025. Published - August 22, 2026 12:50 pm IST