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Photo by PostmediaSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorThe good news is that Canadian home prices appear to have hit bottom. The not so great news is that a full recovery of the housing market could still be years away.Numbers released by the Canadian Real Estate Association this week showed that home sales rose 0.5 per cent in July from the month before, the fourth month of gains in a row.At the same time the national benchmark home price rose 0.1 per cent, its first monthly increase in more than a year and a half.These green shoots are giving economists’ more confidence that a recovery is underway, but no one thinks it will be quick.Breaking business news, incisive views, must-reads and market signals. Weekdays by 9 a.m.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Posthaste will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again“Volumes and prices have likely bottomed in the hardest-hit markets, but the recovery is going to be flat with little in the pipeline to trigger a forceful rebound,” said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.“Even so, going from a deep correction to a flat and stable resale market is incremental progress, and likely removes what was a persistent drag from Canadian economic growth.”The 457,500 homes sold in July remain a “hefty” 12 per cent below the 10-year average, said Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada. At the pace seen over the past two months it would take about two and a half years to return to average levels of activity, he said.“This isn’t a fast track to recovery to say the least.”RBC thinks the market turnaround could accelerate “a bit” as confidence rebuilds, but with no interest rate cuts on the horizon, population growth stalling and economic uncertainty likely to remain high any pickup would be gradual.One interesting development is that regional markets are starting to converge after years of divergence with the hottest regions cooling off and the weakest gaining traction.Ontario, hardest hit in the housing correction, has led national sales gains over the past four months. Sales rose in Toronto, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, London and Ottawa, and prices increased in Toronto and Ottawa, said Hogue.Other recently robust markets such as Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec and Atlantic Canada are now showing signs of topping out. Sales declined from the month before in July in Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Montreal, Quebec City, Moncton and Prince Edward Island.Home prices continue to grow in these markets, but at a slower pace. In Montreal and Quebec City annual price gains are now less than half what they were at the start of the year, said Hogue.RBC expects this trend to continue. Ontario’s market will improve as better affordability and job prospects unlocks pent-up demand.Growth will slow in markets that have thrived as they are hit by deteriorating affordability, sensitivity to geopolitical events and immigration cuts.Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.The bears have left the building.In the latest Bank of America survey, 56 per cent of fund managers polled were overweight in equities, the highest level since November 2021. Cash allocations were down to “uber-low 3.5 per cent.”“Consensus conviction is no macro landing, no Fed hike, no AI capex cut, no DEM sweep, no bears,” said the BofA strategists led by Michael Hartnett.The survey, conducted between Aug. 7 and Aug. 13, was the third-most bullish poll of investor sentiment since 2022.Today’s Data: Canada industrial product and raw materials price indices,Earnings: Deere & Co., Walmart Inc.If you forget to report some of your income on your tax return, you’ll be able to avoid a penalty the first time around. But, if you get caught a second time, you could be hit with a “repeated failure to report income” penalty, even if the omission was due to a purely innocent mistake. Tax expert Jamie Golombek looks at one such case with an unusual twist. Find out moreInterested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country’s most important sectors.Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we’ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course).Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com.Bookmark our website and support our journalism: Don’t miss the business news you need to know — add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here Join the Conversation This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Posthaste: Housing market recovery could still be two years away, says RBC
Canadian home prices appear to have hit bottom, but a full recovery of the housing market could still be years away, says RBC. Read more
Home sales in Canada rose 0.5% in July—the 4th consecutive monthly gain—yet remain 12% below 10-year average; RBC forecasts 2-3 year full recovery. Persistent housing stagnation undermines Canada's economic growth and dampens business investment sentiment.






