On paper, Saturday’s governorship election in Osun State sets the stage for mass citizen participation, boasting a roll of over 2.3 million registered voters. However, the state’s history of apathy, coupled with rising political violence and threats ahead of the poll, is raising fresh concerns that many registered voters may stay away from the ballot box.

Fifteen political parties have been cleared to contest the election, which will be held across 3,763 polling units in 30 local government areas, with incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke seeking a second term.

Yet despite the increase in voter registration, participation has steadily declined across successive governorship elections, raising questions about whether the latest poll can reverse the trend.

In 2022, almost two million voters were registered, but only 42.09 percent turned out to vote, the lowest turnout recorded in Osun’s governorship election history.

Since the state was created in 1991, eight governorship elections, including the court-ordered 2010 rerun, have been conducted. Turnout has crossed the 50 percent threshold only twice.