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India’s macro story continues to remain one of resilience, even as global uncertainties remain elevated; SBI’s Nowcasting model projects real GDP growth at 8% in Q1 FY27With the economy in first track -- real GDP growth expected at 8 per cent in Q1 FY27; credit demand continues, growing by 19.3 per cent for the fortnight ended 31 July’26 even as deposit growth has picked up speed, growing by 15.4 per cent (with the huge inflows of FCNR-B deposits); and a visible reversal in FII flows -- India “was”, “is”, and “will” be one of the fastest growing economies in the world, according to SBI’s economic department (ERD). India’s macro story continues to remain one of resilience, even as global uncertainties remain elevated. Growth outlook remains strong. SBI’s Nowcasting model projects real GDP growth at 8 per cent in Q1 FY27. “Record Capital inflows under RBI scheme at $57 billion and counting; credit growth at scorching 19 per cent, deposit growth at 15 per cent; forex reserves at $707 billion, buoyant corporate results, monsoon recovery are all holding up,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India, in a report “Celebrating Resilience of Indian Economy on India’s 80th Independence Day” The report emphasised that till 13 August, $52.3 billion has been mobilized under FCNR(B) under RBI’s concessional swap facility, which is remarkable. “Even after one month truncation (the concessional swap facility will be offered by RBI on FCNR-B deposits mobilised by banks till August 31st against September 30) overall, we expect $65–70 billion of FCNR(B) mobilization by the end of the scheme and, including OFCBs (overseas foreign currency borrowings) and ECBs (external commercial borrowings), total mobilization could reach $80–85 billion,” per the assessment of SBI’s ERD. The report noted that RBI has already recouped around $31 billion of Foreign Currency Assets as of 7 August, equivalent to nearly 55 per cent of the amount mobilised The ERD officials opined that the surge in bank deposits and foreign-currency funding should lower the counterfactual level of G-Sec yields through deposit-to-yield transmission gaining credence. The clearest beneficiary should be the 3–7-year segment due to maturity matching, carry and lower supply pressure followed by the 7–10-year segment, they added. Ghosh underscored that there is also a visible reversal in FII flows -- from earlier outflows towards inflows following the measures announced by the RBI and Government. The report said domestic demand and corporate performance remain supportive. Among 2,257 listed non-BFSI companies, Q1 FY27 net sales, EBITDA (earnigs before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) and PAT (profit after tax) grew by 24 per cent, 9 per cent and 4 per cent Year-on-Year, respectively. The ERD said the monsoon story has also improved, with nationwide deficit down to around 13 per cent. Encouragingly, kharif sowing is only 2 per cent below last year, pointing towards better irrigation coverage. Published on August 15, 2026
