In December 2025, high-intensity Chinese military exercises around Taiwan featured, for the first time, a mock comprehensive air and naval blockade of the island. Weeks later, a pair of US naval vessels entered the Taiwan Strait to carry out the first naval transit of 2026.
While the transit provided reassurance to some regional capitals, especially Taipei, it remains the only publicly declared transit the US Navy has initiated in the Taiwan Strait this year, and one of only three since the start of the second Trump administration. That marks a substantial decrease from prior years, which — at a time when Chinese military coercion has intensified — raises some serious concerns.
Our analysis of Taiwan Strait transits — which draws data from official statements of both the US government and foreign governments, news reports, US naval press reports, and existing databases, including the Taiwan Security Monitor — tracked 28 naval transits under the first Trump administration and 32 under the Biden administration.
In contrast, current rates project only 14 publicly reported transits for the entirety of Trump 2.0 — in what would amount to a 50 percent decline from Trump 1.0 and a 56 percent decline from the Biden administration.
