About 200,000 low-income Arkansans could see major changes to their health coverage next year after the Trump administration recently informed state officials it will not renew a key Medicaid agreement with the federal government.

The decision by federal officials, citing authority granted under President Donald Trump’s signature tax-and-spending law, suggests the GOP-led state’s predicament could foretell other repercussions in how states are allowed to run the program under federal waivers.

Nearly every state has at least one waiver to run its Medicaid program differently than required by federal law, such as allowing the use of private managed-care plans or expanding eligibility for mental health or long-term care services. Some Medicaid waivers have stretched decades, renewed by presidential administrations of both parties, effectively making the demonstration programs they created permanent.

Arkansas is one of a dozen states with a waiver expiring Dec. 31 that face the additional restrictions the Trump administration has placed on new or renewed waivers.

Though it has yet to finalize its decision, the federal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said Arkansas’ 13-year-old waiver does not comply with new “budget neutrality” rules that take effect in January, said Gavin Lesnick, a spokesperson for the Arkansas Department of Human Services. The rules tighten a policy forbidding Medicaid waivers from increasing federal spending on the program beyond what it would have increased without the waiver.