The forecast was presented at Citi's economic outlook seminars for clients in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City on Aug. 11 and 12.
Vietnam's GDP grew 8.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, accelerating from 7.9% in the first quarter. The stronger-than-expected performance prompted Citi to raise its full-year forecast to around 8%, after previously cutting it to the low-7% range following the energy-price shock in March.
Exports have remained more resilient than expected. The U.S. accounts for about 30% of Vietnam's exports, with electronics benefiting from strong global investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. Although exports to the U.S. have slowed from their 2025 peak, growth remains elevated.
Trade with China has also strengthened. Vietnam's exports of electronics and components to China have accelerated, while imports of electronic inputs, energy and chemicals have increased, reflecting deeper integration into regional manufacturing and electronics supply chains.
Minh Ngo, Citi Country Officer and Banking Head for Vietnam. Photo courtesy of Citi
