Troy Stangarone
Since U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, speculation has repeatedly surfaced about a future meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Much of this has been driven more by the desire to restart nuclear talks than by any substantive indication that a meeting is imminent. Despite the lack of substance to much of this speculation, there are reasons why Kim should pursue a meeting with Trump.
From Pyongyang’s perspective, time seems to be on its side. Since the pandemic, North Korea has gained confidence in its ability to navigate the international environment without engaging the United States. Its self‑imposed border closures demonstrated that the regime could survive, at least temporarily, under the harshest sanctions. Russia’s war against Ukraine then opened unprecedented opportunities for Pyongyang to earn revenue, acquire technology and weaken the broader sanctions regime.
Geopolitical shifts have also moved in North Korea’s favor. With the United States and China increasingly moving from competitive across a wide range of issues to a rivalry, Beijing has less incentive to cooperate with Washington to bring Pyongyang back to the negotiating table.
