The results of the Democratic primary delivered a blow to the progressive wing of the party, but also to Polymarket and Kalshi—popular prediction market platforms that had gained a near-infallible reputation after accurately forecasting the outcome of every state in the 2024 presidential election.
Polymarket and Kalshi event contracts on the outcome of the Wisconsin governor’s primary aligned with the sentiments of traditional polling firms, which had predicted an easy win for progressive candidate Francesca Hong. Both platforms gave Francesca Hong roughly a 95% chance of winning, but when the votes were counted, her rival, David Crowley, prevailed by less than half a percentage point.
The surprise loss led Polymarket to delete one of its more boastful posts on X, which said Hong had a 96% chance of winning the primary, despite Hong’s lack of endorsements from prominent Democratic socialists such as Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
They deleted this tweet. pic.twitter.com/BoavMCpSn1— Christopher Hale (@ChristopherHale) August 12, 2026
In response to criticism of the market’s accuracy, Kalshi’s founders argued that the outcome did not, on its own, invalidate the forecast. In a social media post, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said the 95% probability assigned to Hong still implied that the underdog had roughly a one-in-20 chance of winning—a low-probability outcome, but one the market had explicitly allowed for. “5% is not 0%,” wrote Kalshi founder Luana Lopes Lara.
