SynopsisGeopolitical tensions have slowed large commercial property deals in Dubai, with transaction value falling 21% in the June quarter. However, office demand remains strong amid limited supply, with office transaction value nearly tripling as investors favour smaller deals.AgenciesDubai: Lingering geopolitical tensions have slowed Dubai's big-ticket commercial property bets but are yet to dent office space demand amid limited supply, with investors gravitating towards smaller transactions as businesses take longer to commit. While overall commercial property deals in the Emirate fell by a marginal 1% year-on-year in the June quarter from a year earlier, the decline was sharper in terms of value at 21%, signifying a shift in deal composition, showed data by property consultancy Anarock."The (regional) war has clearly slowed the big-ticket end of commercial real estate, while the office and retail segments have kept expanding underneath it," said Anuj Kejriwal, CEO, EMEA at Anarock. "Overall, the total commercial sales value did come down...but on pure deal count, the market held steady through the disruption." Indian nationals rank among the top foreign buyers in the UAE, and are expanding beyond their traditional focus on residential property, towards commercial real estate. According to Anarock, overall commercial transaction volume in Dubai was nearly flat at 2,844 deals in Q2 2026 compared to 2,875 a year earlier. Deal value fell to AED 24.49 billion from AED 31.15 billion during the period.Kejriwal said big-ticket, single-buyer categories are most likely to be delayed by longer decision cycles at the company level. However, office and retail feature smaller, faster decision making, and would sustain the growth momentum. Aditya Earnest John, a Dubai real estate expert, said there are signs of occupiers taking a more cautious approach."Some businesses are preferring to lease while they wait for greater clarity," he said. "However, I wouldn't call it a structural shift."He said businesses are taking longer to make expansion and relocation decisions, temporarily impacting transaction activity, though emphasising that Dubai continues to face a shortage of quality Grade A office space, with much of the future supply still under construction.The prevailing scenario got reflected in office space transactions and price growth. While land, whole buildings, industrial, and hotel rooms saw sales value decline between 24% and 59% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, office deals rose 4.4% and sales value nearly tripled to AED7.6 billion."The weakness was concentrated in specific sub-categories rather than commercial overall," said Kejriwal. "Categories like whole buildings, industrial, and hotels are most exposed to single large buyers and long negotiation cycles, exactly where war related caution would show up first," he said, adding that in contrast, office space ownership demand has strengthened robustly. Office space transaction value surged nearly 195% last quarter. (Join our ETNRI WhatsApp channel for all the latest updates)...moreElevate your knowledge and leadership skills at a cost cheaper than your daily tea.Subscribe Now