This year’s Edmonton Oilers training camp will feature a new head coach, a three-way goalie tandem, an overhaul on defence and year two of a period of transition on both wings. This will be the first training camp without Darnell Nurse in over a dozen years. Hopes are high, with more than the usual range for possible outcomes this season.For over a decade, I’ve been projecting the Oilers’ overall and individual statistics. The process has at times predicted goal difference impressively, and also missed by miles in other years. Here’s what ‘reasonable expectations’ have looked like over the past several years.YearPredictedActual2021-22289-252 (Plus 37)285-251 (Plus 34)2022-23300-243 (Plus 57)325-256 (Plus 69)2023-24318-230 (Plus 88)292-236 (Plus 56)2024-25297-211 (Plus 86)259-235 (Plus 24)2025-26282-236 (Plus 46)282-265 (Plus 17)2026-27??I predicted the 2021-22 season correctly, but was slow to recognize the enormous impact coach Jay Woodcroft would have on the team’s goal-scoring output. The 2022-23 season (325 goals) was a major outlier for this era of NHL hockey. The predictions lagged in adjusting the normalized scoring totals, although the two seasons Edmonton made the Stanley Cup Final, my model suggested the team would be formidable. Last season, I correctly predicted the goals for, but didn’t anticipate the goaltending issues overwhelming the team.This season, Mike Babcock will be the coach. He is a dedicated possession coach who believes in tight checking and goal suppression. That should mean fewer goals allowed, while also reducing Edmonton’s goals in looking after the defensive chores. Another factor: age and injury. Some of the feature players are entering their mid-30s, which will have an impact.Here’s a look at reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2026-27.The skill forwardsPlayerGPGoalsPointsPts-GameConnor McDavid78441281.64Leon Draisaitl71401041.46Zach Hyman7027530.76Matt Savoie8020400.5Vasily Podkolzin8220390.48Ike Howard6013270.45My projections for Connor McDavid have him off last year’s pace (1.68 points per game in 2025-26) by a slight margin. McDavid could post even stronger numbers if he and his linemates force enough turnovers. I remind myself every season not to underestimate this player, but attention to detail may find him tracking down the puck for longer periods each shift. The key stat for this coming season will come in five-on-five outscoring. Babcock is a stern coach and McDavid is a determined individual. It could spark a change in Oilers hockey we haven’t seen in two decades.Leon Draisaitl also sees a slight reduction in points per game from last season’s 1.49. The big man won’t need to adjust his style of play as much as the captain, but is likely to take on more of the heavy lifting (more minutes versus elites, more own-zone faceoffs) this season. Zach Hyman is 34 now, and missed 24 games a year ago. He will remain effective, but is projected to miss 14 games in 2026-27.Matt Savoie and Vasily Podkolzin should continue to progress as offensive contributors. The incremental increases for both men are tempered slightly by less projected ice time at five-on-five (McDavid and Draisaitl’s playing time reduction will affect linemates).Ike Howard is the most difficult to project in this group. The error bars are as wide and deep as the Pacific Ocean, but this reflects a bet on his making the transition to NHL regular successfully. He won’t play the entire season in the top six, but should land there frequently enough to find his way.The depth forwardsPlayerGPGoalsPointsPoints-GameRNH7417440.59Kasperi Kapanen7014300.43Jason Dickinson759210.28Trent Frederic658160.25Max Jones536130.25Mathieu Joseph555120.22Mattias Janmark501100.2Colton Dach625120.19Quinn Hutson12020.17Josh Samanski51280.16Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kasperi Kapanen are the two depth forwards who should play substantial minutes on the skill lines. Nugent-Hopkins’ numbers reflect both his bottom-six role and the fact he might play No. 2 centre without the benefit of McDavid or Draisaitl on his line. This could be a difficult year for the veteran offensively.