In August, Heisman Trophy predictions all sound so simple, so obvious. Even a casual knowledge of national championship favorites and early NFL Draft darlings should be able to lead you toward the list of the likeliest candidates to be named the nation’s most outstanding player.Right?The Athletic’s staff of college football writers is here to prove otherwise. When Fernando Mendoza took home the hardware last December, he also reminded us all how little we really know until toe meets leather. Four months earlier, when eight writers gathered to each pick four Heisman hopefuls in our annual Heisman Draft, not only did no one see Mendoza making that leap, only three of the top 10 Heisman vote-getters were selected out of our 32 picks.Nevertheless, eight writers have bravely returned to try again. The format of this preseason exercise remains the same entering its seventh year of operation: We arranged writers in a randomized snake draft order and gave them four rounds to take their pick of this season’s Heisman candidates. In December, the writer whose four picks have totaled the most points earns 12 months of bragging rights.Who will win the Heisman Trophy this year?Ralph D. Russo, Sam Khan Jr. and moreHere was the randomized order of our snake draft: 1. David Ubben; 2. Scott Dochterman; 3. Ralph Russo (last year's champion after doubling up on Ohio State stars Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin); 4. Chris Vannini; 5. Bruce Feldman; 6. Stewart Mandel; 7. Justin Williams; 8. Mitch Sherman.Round 1, Pick 1: Notre Dame QB CJ CarrThe offseason reports around Carr have been impossible to ignore, and I’m buying into the hype. I saw more than just flashes last year in between handoffs to a stellar duo of backs, but he’ll be shouldering more of the offense this year. He’s ready. His mental processing on top of his physical attributes has everyone raving. And the schedule doesn’t hurt: Only three preseason coaches poll top-25 teams are on the schedule, and two — Miami and SMU — are night games at home. See you in the Playoff, CJ. And probably New York City. — David UbbenRound 1, Pick 2: Ohio State WR Jeremiah SmithEvery few years, I proclaim an Ohio State receiver as the best in Big Ten history. The others were equally great. But Smith is the best. After just two seasons, Smith is in range of every Ohio State receiving record and has Indiana coach Curt Cignetti comparing him to Julio Jones. The only question is whether Smith and quarterback Julian Sayin will strip votes from each other. He’s peerless among receivers. — Scott DochtermanRound 1, Pick 3: Oregon QB Dante MooreSmith would have been my No. 1 choice, with Moore and Arch Manning up next. With both quarterbacks available, I decided to go with Moore. I think the expectations for Manning and the hyper-analysis of his every move could end up working against him with Heisman voters. Barring injury, Moore feels like a lock to at least be a finalist. — Ralph RussoRound 1, Pick 4: Texas QB Arch ManningI’m surprised Arch made it this far. After a rough start to 2025, Manning was electric to close last season, with 20 total touchdowns and two interceptions in the last six games. Now he adds future NFL receiver Cam Coleman from Auburn and what should be a better running game. Texas’ schedule is one of the toughest in the country, but that also creates a lot of opportunities to impress. If he’s good enough to be in the mix at the end, all the attention on him will lead to more votes. — Chris VanniniRound 1, Pick 5: Ole Miss QB Trinidad ChamblissChambliss put up dazzling numbers last year: 3,937 yards, 22 touchdowns against just three interceptions, 527 rushing yards and eight more TDs with his legs. I don’t know if the Rebels will be good enough to win the title, but with the way he looked down the stretch last year, especially when he carved up Georgia, I could see Chambliss putting up a stat line that gets him invited to NYC. — Bruce FeldmanRound 1, Pick 6: Miami QB Darian MensahIf you look beyond his offseason transfer drama, Mensah put up Heisman-caliber numbers in 2025: 3,973 passing yards (second in the FBS) with 34 passing TDs (tied for second) and only six interceptions while leading Duke to an ACC title. Now he joins a Miami squad that should have even more talent, including Mark Fletcher Jr. at running back, Malachi Toney at receiver and Cooper Barkate, his top target at Duke, following in the portal. Another step up on a championship contender is plenty attainable. — Justin WilliamsRound 1, Pick 7: USC QB Jayden MaiavaDrawing the seventh pick was not ideal. I was hoping to land Mensah, but Justin stole him one pick above me. But it’s not the worst idea to take the third-year starting quarterback for a coach, Lincoln Riley, whose previous quarterbacks include three Heisman winners (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Caleb Williams) and a runner-up (Jalen Hurts). Maiava threw for 3,711 yards last season, fifth-best nationally. And I believe he’ll lead the Trojans to the Playoff this season. — Stewart MandelRound 1, Pick 8: Ohio State QB Julian SayinI’d have taken Sayin with the third or fourth pick. Not enough has been made of his Big Ten-record 77 percent completion rate last season, which led the nation by a wide margin. Sayin’s got the track record to win over voters early in the season. He also has the best receiver in the country and other talent around him to help build a classic Heisman resume. — Mitch ShermanRound 2, Pick 1: LSU QB Sam LeavittWe all saw what happened with Trinidad Chambliss last year after he teamed with Lane Kiffin, rising from way off the radar to national prominence in a way that should boost confidence around Kiffin’s next QB. Leavitt was hurt last year, but over two seasons at Arizona State he showed potential that positioned him as one of the portal’s most coveted passers, and he’s now at a school ready to rocket any quarterback to stardom. — Mitch ShermanRound 2, Pick 2: Miami WR Malachi ToneyLast season’s breakout freshman earned massive name recognition from Miami’s run to the national championship game, including his 10 catches for 122 yards against Indiana. I’d be hesitant to take a pure receiver this high, but Hurricanes offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson loves to use Toney on run plays as well, and he’ll likely return punts. — Stewart MandelRound 2, Pick 3: Indiana QB Josh HooverWe all know Hoover’s shortcomings, thanks to his former coach Sonny Dykes: 13 interceptions in 2025, third-most in the FBS, and 42 total turnovers in 31 starts for TCU. But now Hoover has arrived at the land of milk and honey, playing quarterback for Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers. We already know Hoover can sling it. If he can clean up the mistakes and lean on “his two new best friends: a great defense and a really good run game,” as Cignetti put it, Indiana could go back-to-back with Heisman-winning QBs. — Justin WilliamsRound 2, Pick 4: Oklahoma State QB Drew MestemakerI could see new Cowboys coach Eric Morris lighting up the Big 12 just like he did in the American when he and Mestemaker were at North Texas. It helps that most of the Mean Green’s playmakers followed him to Stillwater. As a redshirt freshman last year, Mestemaker led the nation in passing (312.8 yards per game, 9.5 yards per attempt). Another prolific season on a bigger stage should get him in the top 10 of Heisman voting. — Bruce FeldmanDrew Mestemaker followed head coach Eric Morris from North Texas to Stillwater to revitalize Oklahoma State's offense. (Bryan Terry / Imagn Images)Round 2, Pick 5: Alabama QB Keelon RussellThis is admittedly a high-ceiling, low-floor pick because he hasn’t even won the starting job yet, but Russell was turning heads in fall camp, and he was the No. 2 recruit in his high school class behind Bryce Underwood. If the Tide can’t solve their issues running the ball, they’ll be asking a lot of their quarterback once again. Maybe that’s a reason to start the more experienced Austin Mack, or maybe it’s a reason to use Russell’s impressive athleticism. — Chris VanniniRound 2, Pick 6: BYU QB Bear BachmeierThe fall-off at this point in the draft was pretty dramatic; I don’t particularly like any of my last three picks. BYU should be good, and Heisman voters love dual-threat quarterbacks. Especially ones named Bear. — Ralph RussoRound 2, Pick 7: Texas A&M QB Marcel ReedTexas A&M has the perfect schedule to launch a Heisman campaign for Reed. It’s solid and challenging until mid-November, then it ramps up with three marquee games at the end, culminating at home against archrival Texas.Reed was a revelation last fall for the Aggies in his first full season as the starter, leading them to 11 straight wins and a CFP appearance. If he cuts down on his mistakes, he might wind up in New York. — Scott DochtermanRound 2, Pick 8: Oklahoma QB John MateerI believe in Steven Shin. The now-famous surgeon helped get Mateer back on the field quickly last year after the quarterback broke a bone in his throwing hand, but Mateer was a shell of himself when he returned. The decision making wasn’t great, and the arm strength suffered.“I cringe when I watch the film,” Mateer said of the second half of 2025.Mateer was outstanding against Michigan and Auburn before the injuries. This pick is betting on a healthy Mateer having OU contending for the SEC title. — David UbbenRound 3, Pick 1: Texas Tech QB Will HammondHammond may not be ready for Week 1 after suffering a torn ACL at midseason last year, but he’s scheduled to be cleared for contact on Aug. 21. He was supposed to be on the bench this year, but the Brendan Sorsby gambling investigation changed that and put Hammond squarely in the QB1 chair.Texas Tech is a solid favorite to win the Big 12 but lacks the star power of its team a season ago. A return to the Playoff with a solid season from Hammond could mean a ticket to NYC. — David UbbenRound 3, Pick 2: South Carolina QB LaNorris SellersIn last year’s Heisman Draft, Sellers would have been a third-round steal. But injuries crushed South Carolina up front (43 sacks allowed!) and flattened Sellers’ Heisman chances in the process. But I’m feeling a rebound season for the uber-talented Sellers.Even amid a sophomore slump, he still guided the Gamecocks to an eight-point lead against Alabama inside of three minutes to play and helped them jump out to a 30-3 lead at Texas A&M. He’s more than capable of putting first-round NFL Draft potential on display every week. — Scott DochtermanRound 3, Pick 3: Michigan QB Bryce UnderwoodIs Underwood this draft’s player most likely to get benched? The offseason vibes around the former five-star have not been great, but I still think there is big potential in the marriage of Underwood’s skills and new coordinator Jason Beck’s offense. — Ralph RussoRound 3, Pick 4: SMU QB Kevin JenningsIt’s Jennings’ third year as the starter in what has been one of the nation’s most explosive offenses. He has played in a lot of big games, and he had the best performance of any quarterback against Miami last year, with 365 passing yards and two TDs (one passing, one rushing) in a 26-20 win. The Mustangs are the preseason No. 2 pick in the ACC, and a conference title run could get him in the mix. The school has already started a public campaign for him. — Chris VanniniRound 3, Pick 5: Georgia QB Gunner StocktonI did a quadruple-take that Stockton was still available. (This was after I tried to draft Mateer like 18 hours after Ubben already had.) But, the leader of the Dawgs was in fact still on the board, and he will have a terrific O-line and a gifted set of tight ends to help him out. I’m not sure he can win the Heisman, but Stetson Bennett came in fourth a few years back, and it wouldn’t shock me if Stockton, a bigger dual-threat player who threw for 24 touchdowns and ran for another 10 last year, could make a similar run. — Bruce FeldmanRound 3, Pick 6: Ole Miss RB Kewan LacyI know — a running back hasn’t won the Heisman since Derrick Henry way back in 2015. But there has been one in the top three of the voting the past two seasons, and Lacy’s 2025 production indicates he’s capable of making it three years in a row. His 1,567 rushing yards ranked third in the FBS, and his 24 rushing touchdowns ranked second. His nation-leading 306 rushing attempts put some tread on the tires, but Ole Miss will be in the spotlight again this season, giving Lacy plenty of opportunities to shine. — Justin WilliamsRound 3, Pick 7: Washington QB Demond Williams Jr.When he’s on, he’s electrifying. Williams threw for 3,065 yards and ran for 611 last season. Unfortunately, though, he got largely shut down in high-profile games against Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon. Of course, he was still only 19 at the time. Now in his third season in Jedd Fisch’s offense, expect both Williams and the Huskies to make a big jump. — Stewart MandelRound 3, Pick 8: Cal QB Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleCal’s starter from 2024, Fernando Mendoza, moved on to win the Heisman at Indiana. And still, the Bears upgraded their win total and their passing game in 2025 because of a true freshman. Sagapolutele averaged an ACC-best 24.3 completions per game, and he threw for 653 yards with six touchdowns and no picks late in the season against ranked opponents Louisville (in an overtime loss) and SMU (in a 38-35 win). JKS is getting better in a hurry. — Mitch ShermanSagapolutele has some intriguing new weapons around him as former Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi takes over as Cal head coach. (Darren Yamashita / Imagn Images)Round 4, Pick 1: Texas WR Cam ColemanTwo big seasons at Auburn, with totals of 1,306 yards and 13 touchdowns on 93 catches, preceded Coleman’s transfer to Texas to connect with Arch Manning as the Longhorns’ WR1. Coleman fits the prototype at 6-3 and 204 pounds, and he will benefit from the talent around him. I like him as a first-team All-American, but the ceiling is even higher. — Mitch ShermanRound 4, Pick 2: Penn State QB Rocco BechtI doubt Becht can win the Heisman, but I absolutely think he can earn enough votes to get me some points. The fourth-year starter will be playing on a much bigger stage now than he was at Iowa State, and he has a chance to put up some big numbers against the Nittany Lions’ incredibly light schedule. He’ll need to show out against teams like USC and Michigan. — Stewart MandelRound 4, Pick 3: Auburn QB Byrum BrownI do not expect Brown to win the Heisman in 2026, for what it’s worth. I also didn’t expect Fernando Mendoza or Travis Hunter or Jayden Daniels to win. And I took Drew Allar, TJ Parker and Makhi Hughes (who finished 2025 with 17 total carries) in last year’s draft … so maybe what I think isn’t the best indicator. Brown and Auburn coach Alex Golesh posted top-five marks in both scoring and total offense while at USF last season. Maybe the duo will help me look smart in spite of myself in 2026. — Justin WilliamsRound 4, Pick 4: Notre Dame CB Leonard MooreI think Notre Dame is one of the three best teams in the country, and I would’ve taken CJ Carr if he was available in Round 1. Moore is probably the best defensive player in the country. He had five interceptions last year and a pick six, and he already has some name recognition. If the Irish are 12-0 when the Heisman vote takes place, he might get some consideration, especially if Carr’s numbers aren’t spectacular. He also will have a showcase game in early November against Miami and star receiver Malachi Toney that everyone will be glued to. If Manti Te’o can finish second in the Heisman voting as a marquee defensive player out of South Bend, Moore could get into the top five. — Bruce FeldmanRound 4, Pick 5: Utah QB Devon DampierDampier quietly had a very strong first season at the Power 4 level, with 34 total touchdowns and only five interceptions for an 11-2 team. The good news is that Texas Tech isn’t on the regular-season schedule. The bad news is Utah has a new head coach, new offensive coordinator and entirely new offensive line. Still, I like the upside. I’ve also realized I took a high-upside group of QBs that might flame out, but we’re here to win it. — Chris VanniniRound 4, Pick 6: Kansas State QB Avery JohnsonI’m addicted to being wrong about Johnson. Maybe new head coach Collin Klein can unlock his potential. — Ralph RussoRound 4, Pick 7: Missouri QB Austin SimmonsSimmons got Wally Pipp-ed at Ole Miss when a Week 2 ankle injury opened the door for backup Trinidad Chambliss to lead the Rebels to the CFP semifinals. But there’s a reason why Lane Kiffin named Simmons his original starter, and Missouri should see why this year.The last three Heisman-winning quarterbacks were transfers, so this selection is worth a late-round flyer. — Scott DochtermanRound 4, Pick 8: Missouri RB Ahmad HardyHardy led all Power 4 backs with 1,649 yards last season. The reason he’s still on the board is that his playing status is unknown after he was shot in the upper leg on May 10. The bullet struck a bone, and in July Missouri said Hardy had fully healed and was progressing toward a return to the field, though coach Eli Drinkwitz avoided announcing when he would play again.But I’ve seen a lot of Hardy. He cannot be tackled. And Heisman voters won’t be able to resist him if he’s even close to what he was a season ago. The potential value of getting the best running back in college football with the last pick is too great. — David Ubben