USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for August 11: four days after weak jobs data killed rate-hike bets, an oil rally revived them, with the 30-year Treasury
Markets reversed September Fed odds in four days on oil: weak jobs Friday killed them, $88 Brent Tuesday revived them, pushing 10-year Treasury to 4.72%. Tech earnings from AI spending show returns; 30-year yields above 5% signal fiscal pressure—rate swings now driven by energy markets, not Fed policy.
Rio Times · USA & Canada Intelligence Brief August 11
Key Facts
—The reversal Markets are again pricing a Federal Reserve rate rise in September, four days after weak employment data had all but removed it, while one Fed dissenter says her view never changed.
—Yields snap back The ten-year Treasury yield rose above 4.72% overnight after touching about 4.61% on Friday morning.
—The long end The thirty-year yield sits above 5%, having risen alongside the ten-year on Monday.
The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro and Markets, August 9
US Treasury yields fall as jobs report dashes hike bets
Stocks and Bonds Rise as Jobs Ease Fed-Hike Worry: Markets Wrap
Stocks and Bonds Rise as Jobs Ease Fed-Hike Wagers: Markets Wrap
Treasuries rally as soft jobs data trims Fed rate-hike bets
