A security officer stands next to the grain ship Navi-Star at the Odesa Sea Port in Odesa, Ukraine, on July 29, 2022. (David Goldman / AP)Smoke billowing over the Black Sea is now an everyday sight in Odesa Oblast as Russia continues to strike ports and vessels in Ukrainian waters. But it’s on land that the impact of Russia’s campaign is most keenly felt, with Ukraine facing an economic crisis unless the country finds a solution soon.The biggest victims are Ukraine’s agricultural and steel firms — both key economic drivers — which are cut off from crucial trading routes via the Black Sea. Ukraine could lose 1%-1.5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) by year-end, according to Olena Bilan, chief economist at investment firm Dragon Capital.While the Black Sea isn’t officially blocked, vessels are avoiding Ukraine for fear of being hit by missiles. Since June, Moscow has deliberately stepped up attacks on civilian ships as well as port facilities, as Ukraine puts pressure on Russia’s economy by increasingly striking oil refineries, the shadow fleet, and dual-use logistics hubs.For now, there is no clear solution to the crisis. Overland trade routes are simply incapable of transporting the same volumes as the Black Sea and are more expensive, while the shallower Danube River ports face Russian attacks and record-low water levels."You can barely find a vessel owner brave enough to actually go for one of the Ukrainian ports right now," Bogdan Kostetskyi, an operating partner at consulting service Barva Invest, told the Kyiv Independent."It looks like we will end up with the only option of overland border crossings, which in the best case can result in 1.5 million metric tons of traffic (for agricultural goods) when we need about 5 million metric tons of traffic per month."The consequences are already dire. Logistics costs for grain have increased by $50 per metric ton while domestic grain prices plummeted, agricultural exports dropped by 23% last month compared to June, and steel giants Ferrexpo and Metinvest have shut down production at several mines because they are unable to import and export products.