SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold up.REAR VIEW: Trump said he is demanding compensation from Iran, for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded; Trump reportedly privately floated a willingness to walk away without a Iran nuclear deal if Hormuz reopens; Iran's Foreign Minister stated Iran/US are not engaged in talks; September rate hike signal from the BoJ reportedly resulted in the US joining in on intervention; AAPL downgraded at Jefferies; Hammack calls for a number of rate hikes; Consortium of groups are entering a partnership with NVDA in $500B AI-financing deal; MSFT is reportedly planning to significantly increase production of its next-gen AI chipsCOMING UP: Data: Australian NAB Business Confidence (Jul), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Existing Home Sales (Jul). Events: RBA Policy Announcement (Aug). Speakers: RBA's Bullock. Supply: Germany, US. Earnings: Supermicro, CoreWeave.WEEK IN FOCUS: Highlights include: US CPI, US Retail Sales, RBA, BoJ SOO, and UK GDP. Click here for the full report.WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: Earnings calendar thins significantly next week; CSCO and AMAT the highlights. Click here for the full report.More Newsquawk in 2 steps:1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 daysMARKET WRAPStocks saw modest pressure on Monday amid relatively quiet newsflow, with the Russell 2000 leading the downside while the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) finished little changed, pointing to relatively flat underlying breadth. On a sector basis, Energy heavily outperformed as crude prices climbed, while Real Estate, Utilities and Technology lagged. The gains in oil largely reflected continued geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.The situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains fluid, with repeated suggestions that progress is being made but little concrete evidence of a breakthrough. US President Trump said the US is only "semi-negotiating" with Iran, while Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued six demands for reopening Hormuz, including full compensation, sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, an end to the blockade and the withdrawal of US forces from the region. Trump, however, said the US also wants compensation from Iran for damages, potentially complicating negotiations further. Elsewhere in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia extinguished a fire at its Jazan facility early on Sunday, while Yemen's Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack.Treasury yields rose across the curve alongside higher oil prices, retracing a chunk of Friday's post-NFP decline as renewed energy-price pressures lifted inflation concerns. Markets continue to see a September rate hike as roughly a coin toss, leaving Wednesday's CPI report as the next major catalyst for Fed expectations. Hammack (2026 voter, hawkish dissenter) added to the hawkish backdrop, suggesting more than one rate hike may be required and arguing that action should be taken sooner rather than later, while maintaining that the economy remains around full employment.Despite higher Treasury yields and a firmer Dollar, precious metals rallied, with gold testing USD 4,400/oz to the upside. The resilience despite typically unfavourable moves in rates and FX suggests continued demand for precious metals amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty.In FX, the Pound and Dollar outperformed, while the Yen was the clear laggard despite a series of hawkish domestic developments, including source reports suggesting a September BoJ rate hike is increasingly likely, further official jawboning and a hawkish-leaning BoJ Summary of Opinions.USFED's HAMMACK (Voter, Hawkish dissenter): Current rates are not meaningfully restricting the economy, and would probably need some number of rate hikes. Albeit, Hammack said she has no intention to prejudge the number of rate increases or the final level. The hawkish dissenter added that markets are a complement for the Fed, they're not a substitute, and have to stand behind words with actions when appropriate. And so certainly she is going to factor in how markets are performing, how they're interpreting what the Fed are saying, but ultimately that's not a substitute for the Fed taking action when it's necessary. On the labour market, and after Friday's NFP, she noted "I'm still not seeing a problem" with the job market, describing it as full employment. She also stressed she does not see inflation coming back down on its own.FIXED INCOMEYields rise across the curve as oil prices climb on geopolitical uncertainty. At settlement, 2-year +4.0bps at 4.239%, 3-year +4.6bps at 4.309%, 5-year +5.1bps at 4.408%, 7-year +5.2bps at 4.549%, 10-year +5.2bps at 4.701%, 20-year +4.6bps at 5.255%, 30-year +4.4bps at 5.246%.THE DAY: Treasury yields rose across the curve on Monday, reversing some of Friday's sharp decline following the weak July NFP report, with the move largely driven by higher crude prices. The situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains fluid, with repeated suggestions that progress is being made but little concrete evidence of a breakthrough. Meanwhile, US President Trump said the US is only "semi-negotiating" with Iran, while Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued six demands to the US for reopening Hormuz, including full compensation, sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, an end to the blockade and the withdrawal of US forces from the region. Elsewhere in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia extinguished a fire at its Jazan facility early on Sunday, while Yemen's Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack.Higher energy prices amid the continued uncertainty in the Middle East lifted inflation expectations and helped push Treasury yields higher. Markets now see a September rate hike as roughly a coin toss, with the Fed facing competing risks from renewed energy-driven inflation pressures and signs of a weakening labour market following Friday's jobs report. Wednesday's CPI report will therefore be particularly important in shaping expectations for the September FOMC.Meanwhile, Fed's Hammack (2026 voter, hawkish dissenter) said in late trade that the current policy rate is not meaningfully restricting the economy and that the Fed will probably require some number of additional rate hikes. However, she declined to prejudge either the number of moves required or the eventual destination for rates.Attention this week turns to Treasury supply, with the 3-year auction on Tuesday, 10-year on Wednesday and 30-year on Thursday, although the primary macro focus will be Wednesday's CPI report.SUPPLYNotes/BondsUS to sell USD 58bln of 3yr notes on August 11th, USD 42bln of 10yr notes on 12th August, and USD 25bln of 30yr on August 13th; all settling on August 17thBillsUS sold 3mth bills at a high rate of 3.735%, B/C 2.88x; sold 6mth bills at a high rate of 3.830%, B/C 2.85xUS to sell USD 95bln of 6-week bills on August 11th; all to settle on August 13thSTIRS / OPERATIONSFed Hike Pricing via CME Fed Watch: Sept 12.9bps (prev. 11bps), Dec 31.6bps (prev 28.6bps).EFFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 117bln (prev. USD 113bln) on August 7thSOFR at 3.62% (prev. 3.65%), volumes at USD 2.977tln (prev. USD 3.055tln) on August 7thNY Fed RRP op demand at 0.97bln (prev. 1.45bln) across 2 counterparties (prev. 2) on August 10thCRUDEWTI (U6) SETTLED USD 3.95 HIGHER AT 82.13/BBL; BRENT (V6) SETTLED USD 4.17 HIGHER AT 87.72/BBLThe crude complex jumped in the first trading session of the week, as US-Iran tensions remain uncertain. Aiding the upside in the US afternoon was a Trump Truth stating, "in response to Iran's requests for compensation during the conflict, he is demanding compensation from Iran, for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts". Over the weekend, US, Iran and Oman continued negotiating a temporary plan to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although Iran said no immediate reopening was guaranteed. Iran continues to demand major concessions, while disputes remain over banning US/Israeli ships and imposing transit fees under an Oman-Iran traffic-management deal. On that footing, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Iran is currently focused on the Strait of Hormuz rather than resuming negotiations with the US. All-in-all, headline newsflow was very quiet on Monday and WTI and Brent ground higher for the duration of the US day to settle at highs. The headline risk event this week is US CPI on Wednesday.EQUITIESCLOSES: SPX -0.05% at 7,753, NDX -0.34% at 26,622, DJI -0.11% at 53,976, RUT -0.50% at 3,019.SECTORS: Energy +4.63%, Health +1.66%, Communication Services +0.68%, Materials +0.68%, Financials +0.32%, Consumer Discretionary +0.27%, Consumer Staples -0.22%, Industrials -0.30%, Technology -1.10%, Utilities -1.11%, Real Estate -1.23%.EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.15% at 6,534, Dax 40 +0.14% at 26,355, FTSE 100 -0.36% at 10,862, CAC 40 +0.13% at 8,726, FTSE MIB -0.10% at 53,664, IBEX 35 +0.03% at 20,183, PSI -0.29% at 9,155, SMI +0.50% at 14,617, AEX +0.17% at 1,113STOCK SPECIFICS:Intel (INTC) announced proposed USD 15bln common stock offering.Apple (AAPL) was downgraded at Jefferies; flag the cancelled all-glass iPhone, soaring memory costs, EPS cuts, & pressure on iPhone 18 sales.MarineMax (HZO) to be acquired by Blackstone-owned Safe Harbor for USD 1.5bln and to pay c. USD 53/shr in cash.Barrick Mining (B): Q2 adj. EPS missed; plans North American IPO by end-2026.TSMC (TSM) sales jump 45% Y/Y in July amid buoyant AI demandSionna Therapeutics (SION) - Sion-719 phase 2a trial does not meet key endpoint; prog. discontinued as add-on.Meta (META) launched Muse Glimmer.GameStop's (GME) Cohen is reportedly weighing pulling his USD 56bln eBay (EBAY) bid.Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) was upgraded at Morgan Stanley to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight'.Delaware judge ruled Verisk Analytics (VRSK) must proceed w/ USD 2.35bln acquisition of AccuLynx.Microsoft (MSFT) is planning to significantly increase production of its next-gen AI chips in 2027 to persuade big cloud customers to use them, the Information reports.FXThe Dollar largely eked out slight gains vs. G10 peers, with the GBP outperforming and the Yen the distinct laggard. Headline newsflow was very sparse on Monday, with Fed's Hammack saying that current rate is not meaningfully restricting the economy; would probably need some number of rate hikes, but she has no intention to prejudge the number of rate increases or the final level. In reaction, little move was seen in markets. In terms of the week ahead, the highlight is US CPI on Wednesday.GBP was the only G10 currency to see gains vs. the Greenback, as desks noticed the continued UK narrative of "no news is good news". CAD, EUR, AUD, NZD, and CHF all saw losses to varying degree, with the Yen the notable loser, as previously mentioned.On the day, the JPY saw notable intra-day strength as Kyodo citing source reports, said that September rate hike signal from the BoJ resulted in the US joining in on intervention. The report added that the BoJ now has "no choice but to raise interest rates" in September. This followed a hawkish Summary of Opinions overnight. However, the strength swiftly pared, and reverse, to see USD/JPY hit a peak of 159.17 against an earlier low of 157.66. Meanwhile, the Japanese Growth Minister spoke, noting the fiscal situation is improving and they do not expect the JPY depreciation to continue.Loading...