The Spread Goldman FlaggedZero Hedge’s Sunday tech rundown of ten charts from Goldman Sachs (GS 0.00%↑) TMT specialist Peter Callahan highlighted the clearest split in last week’s tech tape: optical stocks broke away from memory stocks after both groups suffered comparable July drawdowns.Goldman’s chart showed both groups falling about 30% in July. Opticals then outperformed memory by more than 20 percentage points to start August. Coherent (COHR 0.00%↑) rose 73% over seven sessions; Lumentum ( LITE 0.00%↑) gained 43%, Fabrinet (FN 0.00%↑) 36%, Corning (GLW 0.00%↑) 34%, and Ciena (CIEN 0.00%↑) 24%.The move matched the AI-bottleneck thesis we’ve been trading. AXT (AXTI 0.00%↑) and Sivers Semiconductors (SIVEF), two names we have positions in, were among the beneficiaries. We had already traded them successfully, as you can see below.• 3-leg combo on AXT (AXTI 0.00%↑). Entered at a net debit of $2.45 on 12/29/2025; exited the February $15/$10 put spread at a net debit of $0.20 on 2/9/2026; sold the August $20 call for $28.50 on 3/2/2026. Profit: 1,055% (return on max risk: 338%). Signal: Market Watchers.• Shares of Sivers Semiconductors (SIVEF). Bought for $2.24 on 4/15/2026; sold half for $6.75 on 5/14/2026; sold one-third of the remaining shares for $7.61 on 5/28/2026; sold the remaining shares for $4.20 on 7/8/2026. Profit: 170%. Signal: Market Watchers.Then we reentered both names on July 31st. The chart below tracks both securities from when our trades filled through Friday’s close.From when our July 31st trades filled through Friday’s close, AXTI had gained about 53% and SIVEF had gained about 38%. Both names were higher again Monday morning, with AXTI gaining in U.S. overnight trading and Sivers advancing in Stockholm.When Leadership Becomes A Worse EntryThe rally rewarded the bottleneck thesis. It also weakened the case for putting fresh money into the same names at Friday’s prices.Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI 0.00%↑) finished Friday with a ChartMill Setup Rating of 3. The other U.S.-listed optical names we reviewed ranged from 1 to 3. None cleared our Trend & Consolidation Screen.Leadership and entry quality are different questions. Goldman’s chart identified where investors had just added exposure. Our existing positions give us participation if that move continues; our screens suggest fresh capital should demand cleaner setups elsewhere.Two Signals Away From The CrowdMonday’s trade alert draws on two independent signals. The first comes from Friday’s Portfolio Armor Top Names. The second revisits an earlier Multibaggers biotech after its previous order never filled. Multibaggers are a subset of accounts on our Market Watchers list with multiple documented 100% winners.Both candidates cleared Trend & Consolidation Friday with ChartMill Technical Ratings of 9, Setup Ratings of 8, and prices above rising 50-day exponential moving averages. That combination offered cleaner timing than chasing the AI-stack names that had just run.The structures reflect the different risks. One uses simple calls with several months of runway. The other sells shorter-dated volatility while preserving exposure beyond a later clinical catalyst. The full alert gives the names, exact structures, maximum entry prices, payoff estimates, and exit plans.A Different Daily TenGoldman framed the week through ten charts. Portfolio Armor’s iPhone app offers investors a different daily ten: our current Top Names, ranked by potential return net of optimal hedging cost. The app also finds optimal puts and lower-cost collars for stocks and exchange-traded funds.Portfolio Armor’s iPhone app includes the Daily Top 10 Names and tools for finding optimal puts and collars.Unlock Monday’s Full AlertWe’re making Monday’s full trade alert available to free subscribers as a one-time unlock.Trade Alert: Not Chasing The Light by Portfolio ArmorWe were already positioned for last week’s photonics surge. Monday’s fresh risk moves elsewhere.Read on SubstackUse the widget below to join the free list, then open the alert to see where we’re looking to put fresh capital after the photonics chase.Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.Loading...
Not Chasing The Light
Goldman’s latest tech charts captured last week’s photonics surge. We're already positioned and not chasing it.
Optical semiconductors surged 24–73% in August, signaling AI infrastructure bottlenecks as investors flee memory chip saturation. For IT leaders, supply tightness on photonics and interconnect hardware creates procurement window in 2027 budget planning as capex pressure intensifies.






