The front lines of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are largely stagnant. But in the skies, the war is ratcheting up.
Each sides’ offensive capabilities now appear to be outstripping their air defenses, analysts say. That means more strikes are hitting their targets, more critical and economic infrastructure is being damaged, and more civilians are killed each week.
“We definitely see an increased number of (attack) events, an increased number of casualties as well,” said Olha Polishchuk, the Eastern Europe research manager at ACLED, a global conflict monitor. “There has been an escalation also with regard to the variety of targets that are hit.”
Ukraine has long been able to hit areas of Russia that are thousands of miles away from the front line, but the sophistication of its drone technologies has increased rapidly in the last year. In late June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a 40-day campaign to ramp up drone strikes deep into Russian territory – a push that his top adviser has said will continue.
“That is a significant issue for Russia, because obviously the past 40 days have demonstrated that they have a serious weakness when it comes to interception, and Ukraine has been able to reach their targets quite successfully,” said Natia Seskuria, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK-based security think tank.
