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The next crisis or confrontation in the Gulf may not begin with a territorial invasion or an attack on a military base. It could start with the disruption of an oil refinery, export terminal, liquefied natural gas facility, power grid or desalination plant. In a region where oil, gas, electricity, water and maritime trade are tightly interconnected, an attack on energy infrastructure is no longer a limited act. It could simultaneously affect global markets, human security and the stability of several states.
The region therefore needs an “energy non-aggression pact”: a limited but practical agreement protecting critical energy infrastructure and the essential services that depend on it. Its purpose would be to transform mutual infrastructure vulnerability into mutual restraint.
