Record ocean heat, intensifying El Nino conditions and worsening extremes are raising the prospect that 2026 could become the hottest year ever measured.
Issued on: 08/08/2026 - 15:16
3 min Reading time
Wildfires are burning across Europe and North America, successive heatwaves have baked major cities and the world’s oceans are warmer than ever recorded at this point in the year. Yet despite the exceptional conditions, 2026 is not currently the planet's hottest year on record. So far, it ranks third behind 2024 and 2025. That could change before December. Scientists say the combination of accelerating human-driven climate change and an unusually powerful El Nino could push 2026 past 2024 – or at least bring it very close. Even if it falls short, experts predict that 2027 will likely to set a new global temperature record, potentially by a significant margin. “The world is now on fire again with climate change in a way that’s increasingly difficult to ignore,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at US-based research group Berkeley Earth. “It’s going to keep getting worse.” Hausfather estimates there is now a 35 percent chance that 2026 will become the hottest year recorded, up from just 7 percent in March. July France's hottest month since records began, says national weather service Early warning from oceans One of the strongest indicators is the extraordinary warmth of the world’s oceans, which cover more than 70 percent of the planet. Daily global sea surface temperatures matched 2024 levels in May and have remained at record highs on almost every day since June. Around 82 percent of the world’s ocean surface has experienced marine heatwave conditions this year, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. Changes in sea temperatures often take several weeks to appear in global atmospheric readings, says former senior Nasa climate scientist James Hansen, whose warnings about global warming stretch back four decades. He believes the trend indicates that this year will narrowly overtake 2024.
